Fed Watch Tool Target Rates on the US 10 Y
On this graph, we see the current priced in Interest Rates of the FED Watch Tool in compare to the US 10 Year Treasuries. We can clearly identify by how much the market is frontrunning and at what pace the market believes the Interest Rates will decline.
The Orange Box below is the average Interest Rate of ~2.75% and the expected Mid/Long Term Interest Rate, until something brakes and the next Liquidity Cycle begins.
I personnaly believe that we will see an even faster pace in the future, hence the Earnings showing more uncertainty in the guidance of Corporate Ameria. Additionally the job openings decline, more people are unemployed, the Yen carry trade is not yet unwinded, consumer credit and auto loans are on verge of a credit shock.
Conclusion: hence TLT is pretty much the exact counterpart of the US10Y, I decided to go long TLT with leverage.
The Orange Box below is the average Interest Rate of ~2.75% and the expected Mid/Long Term Interest Rate, until something brakes and the next Liquidity Cycle begins.
I personnaly believe that we will see an even faster pace in the future, hence the Earnings showing more uncertainty in the guidance of Corporate Ameria. Additionally the job openings decline, more people are unemployed, the Yen carry trade is not yet unwinded, consumer credit and auto loans are on verge of a credit shock.
Conclusion: hence TLT is pretty much the exact counterpart of the US10Y, I decided to go long TLT with leverage.
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