Today I will go unconventional in my analysis and look at the yields of 3 major economies with 3 different fiscal trajectories. Today we look at the 10Y Yield of US, Germany and Switzerland. 3 different countries with different Fiscal and Monetary policies off late.
The
US10Y after touching the highs of 5% in Oct 2023 has been in a downward trend making new lower highs and lower lows but within the downward slopping channel sweeping the upper bound and the lower bound. Recently, touching the higher bound of the channel at 4.5%, since then it has reversed its course and gone down. On 26th May my article on US10Y and 
DXY forecasted 4.6% as the upper bound for the $US10Y. US10Y and DXY Divergence and correlation breakdown for TVC:US10Y by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView . We recently got rejected at 4.51%. So, the obvious direction for US10Y is lower with 3.5% as the lowest target.
Now switching gear to $DE10Y. The German Bunds are doing the reverse. They are making a series of new higher highs and higher lows. With increasing yields on the
DE10Y and fiscal indiscipline on the part of German govt this is going to rise in the medium to long term.
Then we finally look at the Swiss 10Y which might touch ‘Negative’ in the near term. The Swiss central bank is on the path to reduce the rates to negative in Sept 25 meeting. The
CH10Y at 0.45% brings back the memory of negative rates. But with global flight to safety and a fiscally conservative government the CH10Y is in huge demand hence pushing down the yields.
Verdict :US10Y ↘ between 4.3% - 3.5%, DE10Y ↗ between 2% - 3%, CH10Y US10Y ↘ between 0.5% - (- 0.25%)
The
US10Y after touching the highs of 5% in Oct 2023 has been in a downward trend making new lower highs and lower lows but within the downward slopping channel sweeping the upper bound and the lower bound. Recently, touching the higher bound of the channel at 4.5%, since then it has reversed its course and gone down. On 26th May my article on US10Y and DXY forecasted 4.6% as the upper bound for the $US10Y. US10Y and DXY Divergence and correlation breakdown for TVC:US10Y by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView . We recently got rejected at 4.51%. So, the obvious direction for US10Y is lower with 3.5% as the lowest target.Now switching gear to $DE10Y. The German Bunds are doing the reverse. They are making a series of new higher highs and higher lows. With increasing yields on the
DE10Y and fiscal indiscipline on the part of German govt this is going to rise in the medium to long term. Then we finally look at the Swiss 10Y which might touch ‘Negative’ in the near term. The Swiss central bank is on the path to reduce the rates to negative in Sept 25 meeting. The
CH10Y at 0.45% brings back the memory of negative rates. But with global flight to safety and a fiscally conservative government the CH10Y is in huge demand hence pushing down the yields. Verdict :
US10Y ↘ between 4.3% - 3.5%, DE10Y ↗ between 2% - 3%, CH10Y US10Y ↘ between 0.5% - (- 0.25%)
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.