US10Y - Is it a "sea change" or a strong buy for TLT and TMF ?
In December 2022, Howard Marks told in an interview that a "sea change" is underway in markets.
When I have seen below charts of
US10Y , I have remembered that interview:
(Unfortunately I needed to remove the graph due to lacking reputation points. Maybe you can view with //x/HZKlWa8U )
US10Y was in a downtrend in a channel since 1980 and this long lasting channel has been broken at April 2022, and upper line of the channel became support at July and August of 2022. So there are some signs that it's not a fake going out of channel like the one in 2020 March.
Does Howard Marks right by saying it's a "sea change" ?
And in this weekly chart ofUS10Y, we can see it has formed a new uptrend in a new channel:
(Maybe you can view the chart with /x/DHeM0t8W )
See how good it has used that upmoving support. Now, we are again hitting that support and if that support line is broken, it would be a "strong buy" for
TLT and 
TMF .
Both graphs have given bullish divergence recently:
(Maybe you can view the charts with /x/2jGkJkCJ and /x/5NGqJ3Ze )
This week we will see ifUS10Y will break the channel and confirm the bullish divergence of TLT and TMF. If the support would been broken at US10Y, then 4.20 and 3.40 and 2.75 are the levels to watch for the bullish trend of TLT and AMEX:TMF.
In conclusion, ifUS10Y will break the channel this week, I'm long in TLT and AMEX:TMF.
If not, we will keep watching if Howard Marks was right and it's really a sea change.
When I have seen below charts of
US10Y , I have remembered that interview:(Unfortunately I needed to remove the graph due to lacking reputation points. Maybe you can view with //x/HZKlWa8U )
US10Y was in a downtrend in a channel since 1980 and this long lasting channel has been broken at April 2022, and upper line of the channel became support at July and August of 2022. So there are some signs that it's not a fake going out of channel like the one in 2020 March. Does Howard Marks right by saying it's a "sea change" ?
And in this weekly chart of
US10Y, we can see it has formed a new uptrend in a new channel:(Maybe you can view the chart with /x/DHeM0t8W )
See how good it has used that upmoving support. Now, we are again hitting that support and if that support line is broken, it would be a "strong buy" for
TLT and TMF . Both graphs have given bullish divergence recently:
(Maybe you can view the charts with /x/2jGkJkCJ and /x/5NGqJ3Ze )
This week we will see if
US10Y will break the channel and confirm the bullish divergence of TLT and TMF. If the support would been broken at US10Y, then 4.20 and 3.40 and 2.75 are the levels to watch for the bullish trend of TLT and AMEX:TMF. In conclusion, if
US10Y will break the channel this week, I'm long in TLT and AMEX:TMF. If not, we will keep watching if Howard Marks was right and it's really a sea change.
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