10 Year Bond & Mortgage Rates to Decline for Several Years?
Using Cycle Analysis we can see multiple Intermediate Cycle Lows (ICL) of about 4 to 5 years in duration with the next one due in the second half of 2020. The next event that will signal the direction of rates is if the 10 YR Bond breaks the upward cycle trend line from the last ICL. This could occur two ways: the bond moves sideways and breaks the trendline in the next several months, or a sharp decrease pierces the trend line. Either way, this signals a failed daily cycle and the move into the next ICL has begun. The final destination could be either at 2.00 which would be equal to the left shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern, or even lower if the pattern forms a triple bottom.
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