I don't trade Treasuries but it's important to keep track of the yield, especially for the USD and if you trade xxx/jpy crosses. The 10 year yield is currently hammering out a complex pattern as wave b in a larger correction, where the last sub wave is expected to reach the 2% area, maybe slightly below, maybe slightly above, before it heads down towards the zero bound - if my count is correct. I expect that to be reached around the 2021/22 change but possibly it will take longer.
Note
It looks like Tradingview has a bug of some kind as it doesn't honer to publish a single chart when you use a multi frame setup, like 4 in this case. So here is the single chart this idea is about.Note
UST10Y yield seems to have completed 5 smaller sub waves up here on 1h as wave 1, so maybe 3 waves drop back in to lows of wave iv as 2 before even higher rates materialize.Note
Rates falling as a result of the latest Covid scare, but be aware of the potential for a brutal turnaround once the present H&S patter has played out.Note
Solid impulsive move in UST 10Y yield, should reach 1.70 at least but probably higher still. Nothing moves in a strait line though so we may need to give it some time.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.