US30 (Dow Jones) — Trendline Breach & Rising Geopolitical Risk
Technical Outlook — 13 June, 2025
Current Market Condition:
US30 is currently trading at 42,339, showing early signs of risk-off sentiment following a clear break of both the ascending trendline and the Previous Day Low, with price rejecting from the 42,863 supply zone. This sharp decline aligns with growing tensions between Iran and Israel, which are weighing heavily on investor confidence. The breakdown suggests a shift in momentum, with further downside likely if key support levels fail to hold.
Key Technical Highlights:
Major downside levels: 42,100, 41,900, 41,700, and 41,500.
Upside resistance: 42,550, followed by 42,863 and 42,970.
🌍 Geopolitical Factor – Iran-Israel Conflict:
The recent escalation between Iran and Israel has intensified risk aversion across global markets. Defensive sectors are gaining while equity indices like the Dow Jones face increased selling pressure. With concerns over possible oil supply disruptions and global uncertainty, traders are pulling capital from equities and seeking safe-haven assets like gold and bonds.
The volatility spike from this geopolitical conflict may overshadow technical setups, amplifying moves and reducing the reliability of support/resistance zones unless confirmed with volume.
Trade Plan:
🔻 1. Bearish Continuation Setup (Short Bias) – Most Probable
Trigger: Retest of 42,550 fails (previous demand turned supply)
Target: 42,100 → 41,900 → 41,500
Stop Loss: Above 42,600
⚠️ 2. Pullback Bounce (Short-term Buy) – Less Probable
Trigger: Strong bounce from 42,100 with bullish divergence on Stochastic
Target: 42,550 → 42,700
Stop Loss: Below 42,000
Risk Management Note:
Due to the unfolding Middle East conflict, markets may behave erratically and spike unpredictably. Use smaller position sizes, widen SL buffers slightly, and stay alert to news headlines. Prioritize confirmation over anticipation.
📢 If you found this analysis valuable, kindly consider boosting and following for more updates.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Technical Outlook — 13 June, 2025
Current Market Condition:
US30 is currently trading at 42,339, showing early signs of risk-off sentiment following a clear break of both the ascending trendline and the Previous Day Low, with price rejecting from the 42,863 supply zone. This sharp decline aligns with growing tensions between Iran and Israel, which are weighing heavily on investor confidence. The breakdown suggests a shift in momentum, with further downside likely if key support levels fail to hold.
Key Technical Highlights:
- Major ascending trendline support has broken, indicating a structural shift toward bearish sentiment.
- Price broke below both the Previous Day Low (42,551) and Fib support, invalidating short-term bullish setups.
- EMA 50 was lost, and price is heading toward the 200 MA at ~42,100.
- Stochastic shows strong bearish momentum, currently in a downward cross and nowhere near oversold.
Major downside levels: 42,100, 41,900, 41,700, and 41,500.
Upside resistance: 42,550, followed by 42,863 and 42,970.
🌍 Geopolitical Factor – Iran-Israel Conflict:
The recent escalation between Iran and Israel has intensified risk aversion across global markets. Defensive sectors are gaining while equity indices like the Dow Jones face increased selling pressure. With concerns over possible oil supply disruptions and global uncertainty, traders are pulling capital from equities and seeking safe-haven assets like gold and bonds.
The volatility spike from this geopolitical conflict may overshadow technical setups, amplifying moves and reducing the reliability of support/resistance zones unless confirmed with volume.
Trade Plan:
🔻 1. Bearish Continuation Setup (Short Bias) – Most Probable
Trigger: Retest of 42,550 fails (previous demand turned supply)
Target: 42,100 → 41,900 → 41,500
Stop Loss: Above 42,600
⚠️ 2. Pullback Bounce (Short-term Buy) – Less Probable
Trigger: Strong bounce from 42,100 with bullish divergence on Stochastic
Target: 42,550 → 42,700
Stop Loss: Below 42,000
Risk Management Note:
Due to the unfolding Middle East conflict, markets may behave erratically and spike unpredictably. Use smaller position sizes, widen SL buffers slightly, and stay alert to news headlines. Prioritize confirmation over anticipation.
📢 If you found this analysis valuable, kindly consider boosting and following for more updates.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.