It seems like "everybody" these days is saying we’re going into recession.
So: are they right?
I’ve covered the markets and the economy for four decades, and I can’t recall a time when more people — or at least prognosticators, economists, and bankers — were more certain that an economic downturn was imminent.
And if so many people believe that a recession is inevitable does that make it, well, inevitable? Or does it mean that a recession won’t occur? Or that any recession will at least be mild in nature? Ask this question enough ways and we're quickly into late-night dorm territory: What even is the economy?
But our primary economic problem right now is clear: inflation is running at 8.6% and the Federal Reserve is fighting this by raising interest rates. What caused this bout of inflation is mostly COVID-related, while the war in Ukraine added supply chain challenges and commodity pressures on top.
So: are they right?
I’ve covered the markets and the economy for four decades, and I can’t recall a time when more people — or at least prognosticators, economists, and bankers — were more certain that an economic downturn was imminent.
And if so many people believe that a recession is inevitable does that make it, well, inevitable? Or does it mean that a recession won’t occur? Or that any recession will at least be mild in nature? Ask this question enough ways and we're quickly into late-night dorm territory: What even is the economy?
But our primary economic problem right now is clear: inflation is running at 8.6% and the Federal Reserve is fighting this by raising interest rates. What caused this bout of inflation is mostly COVID-related, while the war in Ukraine added supply chain challenges and commodity pressures on top.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.