US30 HTF Analysis & Prediction March 1st 2023
February proved to be an interesting month for US30. Throughout the majority of the month, we traded sideways, ranging directly below the key price sensitivity level of 34000. This level had previously caused price reactions, and as buyers began to liquidate positions due to fear and anticipation of continued rate hikes and bad economic data, price began to range, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. After pricing in the 25bps rate hike and higher than anticipated CPI data, price attempted to squeeze to the upside before rejecting and shifting momentum bearish, ending the month at another key support zone of 32500. As we approach the end of the first business quarter, we're hoping for a clearer market direction. The next FOMC meeting with Powell's tone could prove to be a deciding factor. If Powell brings a more hawkish tone and a 50bps rate hike supported by other negative US data indicating the fight against inflation is far from over, we could see a fall in US30, correcting the optimistic bullish run that ended 2022. However, we must remain adaptive, as more optimistic data and a dubbish tone from Powell with a lower than expected rate hike could result in bulls capitalizing and price beginning pullbacks before any sentiment shift. It's important to closely monitor market movements and adjust trading strategies accordingly.
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