US30 has reversed from bullish to bearish on daily timeframe However on monthly timeframe the long term Bullish trend is intact on Monthly timeframe applying SMC i have marked the chart and possible scenario is of downward likely market will take on the previous low and apparently on daily time frame its probably 4th wave low is yet to be identified therefore will look for selling with stop above 41000
Note: Only for educational purpose not a financial advice
Note: Only for educational purpose not a financial advice
Trade active
Idea is purely on technical analysis Fundamentals can override the idea if we get closure above 41000 on D1 bias will be changed from bearish to bullish Note
1. Market Structure Breakdown• Uptrend Phase:
• The market was forming Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) up to the peak at 45,065.00, which marks the swing top and highest candle, confirming a Double Top pattern—a reversal signal.
• Change of Character (CHOCH):
• The market broke structure by falling below the previous HL, which indicates a CHOCH from bullish to bearish.
• After this CHOCH, the market needed to create an inducement candle by sweeping the lows of the 25 Feb candle—which it did.
• Inducement and Liquidity:
• There’s a buy-side liquidity sweep, with a candle breaking the low of the previous candle to confirm the inducement criteria.
• The market formed a Lower High (LH) after this inducement move, confirming bearish order flow.
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2. Trend Reversal and Bearish Structure
• Multiple Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) form post-CHOCH, showing a strong bearish trend.
• The “Invalid BOS/CHOCH” annotation highlights a false signal, corrected by the continuation of the downtrend.
• A valid BOS is established after the market breaks the previous LL and forms another LL.
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3. Current Market Condition
• The market is currently consolidating after the fourth wave, with a potential fifth wave forming that may create a new low.
• There’s a Potential Selling Area around the 41,000 level.
• If price closes above this, it could signal a bullish CHOCH, invalidating the bearish setup.
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4. Key Levels & Decision Points
• Key Resistance / Supply Zone:
• 41,000 – 42,000 (Marked as Potential Selling Area)
• This is the last LH and mitigation area from where the price dropped.
• Key Support:
• Around 36,480.50 (Recent swing LL)
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5. Entry Points, Stop Loss & Take Profit
Setup: Bearish Continuation (Preferred)
• Entry (Sell Limit): 40,800 – 41,000
(Mitigation of previous LH and potential inducement zone)
• Stop Loss: Above 41,200
(Above the swing LH – invalidates bearish structure)
• Take Profit 1: 38,000
(Strong price reaction zone and prior minor support)
• Take Profit 2: 36,500
(Sweep of the current LL)
• Take Profit 3: 35,500
(Fibonacci extension target or deeper liquidity)
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Setup: Bullish Reversal (Only if CHOCH Confirmed)
• Entry (Buy): Upon strong daily close above 41,000
(Confirming a bullish CHOCH)
• Stop Loss: Below 39,800
(Below recent structural low)
• Take Profit 1: 43,000
(Mitigation of previous supply)
• Take Profit 2: 44,500 – 45,000
(Retest of previous high)
Note
Correction in above chart the last LH & LL is not yet confirmed if US30 breaks the previous low than it be confirmed in such scenario will look for sell near 42300 to 42500 level with stop above 43000 & incase if US30 breaks the previous low than we will have confirm LH which is 40893 in this way CHOC will be if we get daily closure above 42850 level 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.