NVIDIA joins the Dow
US stock indices settled down a touch yesterday. The Dow ended unchanged. The mid-cap Russell 2000, which had soared on news of Trump’s win, pulled back a touch to close 0.4% lower. The S&P 500 added 0.7%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 1.5%. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, has fallen sharply, and is now back to levels last seen towards the end of August, not long after the yen carry-trade unwound. The majors were mixed in early trade this morning, but then turned lower. There is little in the way of significant economic data releases or earnings reports to influence market direction. It’s worth noting that NVIDIA is entering the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Intel. This should give the index an extra jolt of volatility. Bear in mind that the Dow is a price-weighted index which means the higher the stock price, the greater the influence on the index. NVIDIA is trading at an all-time high just under $150. Intel trades around $26, having recently bounced off lows last seen in September 2010. NVIDIA will rank at the top of the bottom third of the index, while Intel was bottom. The inclusion of NVIDIA comes just ahead of its next earnings update on 20th November. Bond yields have softened, pulling back from highs last seen in July. Yesterday the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, as expected. Fed Chair Powell said he was ‘feeling good’ about the economy, although he did warn that the US was on an unsustainable path as far as fiscal policy is concerned. He also made it clear that he would complete his term as Chairman which runs until 2026. The President has no power to sack him. Markets are still predicting one more 25 basis point rate cut in 2024, but the probabilities are swinging about a bit. As usual, the Fed will remain data-dependent when it comes to rate decisions, although Powell maintains that current monetary policy remains restrictive. No doubt he’s thinking of all those real estate loans that will reset next year.
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