Just reading the charts—and if history repeats itself, we’ve entered a weekly MACD and RSI downtrend.
I called this for Bitcoin a month ago, and some argued it could be invalidated. Now, we can see that’s nearly impossible.
Macro Outlook
The economy is in bad shape—you see the news.
Trump’s tariffs are scaring investors for a good reason. He wants to avoid money printing and tighten supply, but how will companies and institutions get cash? By selling their stocks.
No more free money—profits will have to come from selling assets, which will intentionally crash the market under Trump’s policy.
Cycles & Recession
We’re at the end of a cycle—everything is overbought and needs a reset before moving higher.
We’re in a recession, even if no one wants to admit it.
Conclusion
📉 Target price: 4850
📅 Estimated bottom: September 15, 2025
Expect volatility, occasional pumps, but on a weekly scale, the trend is down—unless something drastic happens. Q3 and Q4 will be bullish.
🚨 DYOR!
I called this for Bitcoin a month ago, and some argued it could be invalidated. Now, we can see that’s nearly impossible.
Macro Outlook
The economy is in bad shape—you see the news.
Trump’s tariffs are scaring investors for a good reason. He wants to avoid money printing and tighten supply, but how will companies and institutions get cash? By selling their stocks.
No more free money—profits will have to come from selling assets, which will intentionally crash the market under Trump’s policy.
Cycles & Recession
We’re at the end of a cycle—everything is overbought and needs a reset before moving higher.
We’re in a recession, even if no one wants to admit it.
Conclusion
📉 Target price: 4850
📅 Estimated bottom: September 15, 2025
Expect volatility, occasional pumps, but on a weekly scale, the trend is down—unless something drastic happens. Q3 and Q4 will be bullish.
🚨 DYOR!
Trade active
Tatata!!! China retaliates! The tariff war has begun. 🚨🔥reuters.com/world/china/china-vows-countermeasures-against-us-tariffs-linked-fentanyl-2025-03-04/
Trade closed: target reached
Trading View forces me to close this idea, but I will continue to monitor and update it, follow me to get the updates.So far, we are in a downtrend on short term. Every time the RSI goes in oversold territory there is a technical bounce. Basically the liquidity pools needs to rebalance their assets, and exchanges are buying to compensate the sales.
The global trend is bearish until a break up is confirmed. Here is an updated chart with some enlight in circles.
Note
We're seeing signs of a potential bottom here. A bounce on Monday is likely since the RSI is at a low point. However, the weekly structure remains bearish. The overall trend is no longer upward—it was moving sideways, and now it's forming lower highs and lower lows within a descending channel on the weekly timeframe.
If the SPX500 continues its bearish trend, we should see a higher low this week, followed by a further downtrend by week's end.
A higher high would break the structure to the upside, which could either be a bullish fakeout or a reversal, invalidating this bearish outlook.
Updated chart on 1 day:
Note
📉 Reminder: I explained everything here, and people were laughing at me. Note
An update to this idea can be found here: 
Note
According to this idea we have done 50% of the forecasted downside. Let see if this idea will be accurate. The bottom should be at 5,000. This is going to hurt some convictions, but it is what it is, the market and the charts are not emotionnal, they are just mathematic models who don't care about "feelings"
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.