Biased to the downside to 3603
Multi Timeframe Analysis
Hint: Market makers pushed SP500 up from discount prices. The primary trend down contiues to 3603
Narrative:
1. Price is long term bearish due to FED interest rate increase and Biden's response to OPEC cutting oil by 2M barrels a day by November. He will activate SPR, increase rates to fight recession and thereby prop the USD further which will kill stocks.
2. A bearish order block spanning 3671 to 3739 had been satisfied which will potentially complel a bearish surge. Institutional order blocks are magnets for price.
3. Market makers will capture stop losses of breakout traders going long at 3772 who naively assume further upside.
3. Trader's Dynamic Index about to signal overbought
4. Bearish divergence signals on 4H and Daily
5. The bearish navarro pattern had formed on 4H chart and is supportive of the larger bearish patterns on Daily.
Await a confluence signifying a rejection from key levels such as order blocks, then take a satisfying counter position. From this juncture, we update the next forecast.
Special note: The bullish order block at 3602 will attract price and it is highly likely this will be broken and compel a breakdown of SP500 to break the low of 3488
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
------
Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do you long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For Institutional ORDER BLOCK trades:
When price reaches a bearish or bullish orderblock, ascertain the price reversal by means of
1. Dojis
2. Morning/evening stars
3. Several wicks.
4. Engulfing candles or three white soldiers in the opposite direction
5. Marbouzou in the opposite direction.
6. Break of trendline or fast EMAs
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).
In partnership with capital markets research group Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital of Mahe, Seychelles
Hint: Market makers pushed SP500 up from discount prices. The primary trend down contiues to 3603
Narrative:
1. Price is long term bearish due to FED interest rate increase and Biden's response to OPEC cutting oil by 2M barrels a day by November. He will activate SPR, increase rates to fight recession and thereby prop the USD further which will kill stocks.
2. A bearish order block spanning 3671 to 3739 had been satisfied which will potentially complel a bearish surge. Institutional order blocks are magnets for price.
3. Market makers will capture stop losses of breakout traders going long at 3772 who naively assume further upside.
3. Trader's Dynamic Index about to signal overbought
4. Bearish divergence signals on 4H and Daily
5. The bearish navarro pattern had formed on 4H chart and is supportive of the larger bearish patterns on Daily.
Await a confluence signifying a rejection from key levels such as order blocks, then take a satisfying counter position. From this juncture, we update the next forecast.
Special note: The bullish order block at 3602 will attract price and it is highly likely this will be broken and compel a breakdown of SP500 to break the low of 3488
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
------
Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do you long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For Institutional ORDER BLOCK trades:
When price reaches a bearish or bullish orderblock, ascertain the price reversal by means of
1. Dojis
2. Morning/evening stars
3. Several wicks.
4. Engulfing candles or three white soldiers in the opposite direction
5. Marbouzou in the opposite direction.
6. Break of trendline or fast EMAs
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).
In partnership with capital markets research group Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital of Mahe, Seychelles
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.