Where’s the Bottom?
The first level of support for SPY is $261~$262. We believe this midpoint of 2018 high to the low trading range will offer a fairly strong support level for the SPY to attempt to set up a price bottom. Below that, the $234 level (the lower range of the 2018 trading year) would provide very clear support for the SPY.
The same type of price theory and expectations are at play on this chart as with the YM chart above. The YM has already reached our first level of support, yet the SPY is still $12 away from this first support level. This would suggest the YM may begin to set up some type of price support while the SPY may continue to trail a bit lower over time.
If this first level of support does not hold, then we would be looking for the 2018 price low levels (near $234) to become the next target for support. Ultimately, the price must either continue to attempt to break previous low price points as it attempts to establish “new price lows” or, at some point, it will fail to break past lows and that is where it will find support. The midpoint, often called the “belt line” (a Japanese Candlestick term) is used by technicians for two reasons: first, it represents 50% of a defined price range and, second, Japanese Candlestick theory teaches us the BeltLine is “the center of control” or price. Once price breaks this level, then further trending may continue.
The same type of price theory and expectations are at play on this chart as with the YM chart above. The YM has already reached our first level of support, yet the SPY is still $12 away from this first support level. This would suggest the YM may begin to set up some type of price support while the SPY may continue to trail a bit lower over time.
If this first level of support does not hold, then we would be looking for the 2018 price low levels (near $234) to become the next target for support. Ultimately, the price must either continue to attempt to break previous low price points as it attempts to establish “new price lows” or, at some point, it will fail to break past lows and that is where it will find support. The midpoint, often called the “belt line” (a Japanese Candlestick term) is used by technicians for two reasons: first, it represents 50% of a defined price range and, second, Japanese Candlestick theory teaches us the BeltLine is “the center of control” or price. Once price breaks this level, then further trending may continue.
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