Is the pull-back another buying opportunity?
US stock index futures were all on the back foot this morning, continuing to sell off after yesterday’s losses. The domestically-focused, mid-cap Russell led Thursday’s decline, dropping 1.4% during the session. But it is the tech sector which is leading this morning’s move lower, with fairly uniform declines for the ‘Magnificent Seven’ constituents. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell managed to spook markets during a speech and Q&A session last night. He said that the economy was not giving out signals to suggest that the US central bank should be in a hurry to lower rates. His comment led to a pullback in equities and a rally in bond yields. There was also a sharp reversal in rate cut expectations as measured by the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Yesterday morning, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s FOMC meeting next month stood at 82%. This dropped to 62% in the aftermath of Powell’s comments. So, once again, there’s plenty of uncertainty building ahead of the December meeting. The Fed can blame this on recent data, particularly this week’s CPI and PPI releases, but also on what a Trump administration may mean for the US economy. Even though it appeared that both Trump and Powell were in favour of lower rates – the former to goose the economy, the latter to ease the pain of the $1.5 trillion of real estate loans which reset next year – it’s possible that Powell’s hawkish tilt will put the pair back on a collision course, reminiscent of their clash during Trump’s first term. Retail Sales are out later today, and Alibaba is the big earnings release. The question is whether this week’s pullback proves sufficient for investors looking for better long side entry points, or is there more downside from here? If US stock indices can find support around current levels, say 5,900 on the S&P, and rally into the weekend, then this could set the stage for more upside. But if the selling accelerates into today’s close, then investors will have more reason to cut their exposure as we head towards the year-end.
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