The S&P 500 remains in a structurally elevated range around 5,612 following a technical bounce from recent lows. However, the broader macro environment continues to apply pressure beneath the surface.
The Macro Conditions Score prints 5/7 (71.4%), signaling a moderately restrictive backdrop. Meanwhile, the market-implied probability of a Fed Funds Rate cut sits at 52.25%, reflecting policy indecision rather than a definitive pivot.
Recession risk is cooling: the Recession Score has declined from 4/5 to 2/5 over recent months, indicating subsiding risk but not a full reset to expansionary conditions.
Yield curve signals remain inverted, though stabilization is emerging in key spreads (3M10Y, 2s10s). Fed policy sentiment remains neutral-to-hawkish, suggesting no immediate move toward accommodative policy.
📝 Institutional View:
This remains a macro-neutral market, not decisively risk-on. While equities have rebounded, the fundamental backdrop points toward a constrained upside without further improvement in liquidity or policy stance.
The rally is technical and positioning-driven, not yet macro-validated. The reduction in recession odds is positive but still within a tight policy leash.
“The market wants to believe. The data needs to confirm.”
Key Takeaways:
Tactical opportunities remain in place, but strategic positioning should remain selective.
Recession probability is declining but not eliminated.
The macro ceiling remains intact absent further loosening in financial conditions.
Published by Mongoose Capital | Macro Research Desk
(Chart: Mongoose Recession Radar Pro v1.6)
The Macro Conditions Score prints 5/7 (71.4%), signaling a moderately restrictive backdrop. Meanwhile, the market-implied probability of a Fed Funds Rate cut sits at 52.25%, reflecting policy indecision rather than a definitive pivot.
Recession risk is cooling: the Recession Score has declined from 4/5 to 2/5 over recent months, indicating subsiding risk but not a full reset to expansionary conditions.
Yield curve signals remain inverted, though stabilization is emerging in key spreads (3M10Y, 2s10s). Fed policy sentiment remains neutral-to-hawkish, suggesting no immediate move toward accommodative policy.
📝 Institutional View:
This remains a macro-neutral market, not decisively risk-on. While equities have rebounded, the fundamental backdrop points toward a constrained upside without further improvement in liquidity or policy stance.
The rally is technical and positioning-driven, not yet macro-validated. The reduction in recession odds is positive but still within a tight policy leash.
“The market wants to believe. The data needs to confirm.”
Key Takeaways:
Tactical opportunities remain in place, but strategic positioning should remain selective.
Recession probability is declining but not eliminated.
The macro ceiling remains intact absent further loosening in financial conditions.
Published by Mongoose Capital | Macro Research Desk
(Chart: Mongoose Recession Radar Pro v1.6)
TheRealMongoose
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TheRealMongoose
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.