UNPOPULAR Opinion: Crash from 3919 to 3806
Multi Timeframe Analysis
Hint: US500 has hit a powerful horizontal resistance at 3911 and a descending trendline beginning at 4208. If the confluence of resistance is not breached, US500 will fall
Bearish Narrative:
1. Price broke through a bearish order block at 3806- it is highly likely this will be retested. Order blocks are magnets for price.
2. Trader's Dynamic Index is oversold
3. Triple Bearish Divergences on the Daily
4. Powerful multi bearish divergences
5. Bearish anti butterfly harmonic pattern on the daily. First target at 3806 coinciding with bearish order block. Second target at 3558
6. The fifth wave of the Elliot Progression is completing signifying a potential drop
Bullish Narrative:
1. 10 Year Government Bond yield had increased to 4.016%, an uptick from the last swing low of 3.904%. If the bond yield trends higher, so will US500.
Await a confluence signifying a rejection from key levels such as order blocks and harmonic entries, then take a satisfying counter position. From this juncture, we update the next forecast.
Special note: NFP and FOMC news are coming soon. It is expected that the FED may temper the interest ratess as the US had already reached the desired levels to control inflation. If the next BP hike is at 75 or 50, then I expect an invalidation of the thesis and US500 to soar.
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
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Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do you long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For Institutional ORDER BLOCK trades:
When price reaches a bearish or bullish orderblock, ascertain the price reversal by means of
1. Dojis
2. Morning/evening stars
3. Several wicks.
4. Engulfing candles or three white soldiers in the opposite direction
5. Marbouzou in the opposite direction.
6. Break of trendline or fast EMAs
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).
In partnership with capital markets research group Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital of Mahe, Seychelles
Hint: US500 has hit a powerful horizontal resistance at 3911 and a descending trendline beginning at 4208. If the confluence of resistance is not breached, US500 will fall
Bearish Narrative:
1. Price broke through a bearish order block at 3806- it is highly likely this will be retested. Order blocks are magnets for price.
2. Trader's Dynamic Index is oversold
3. Triple Bearish Divergences on the Daily
4. Powerful multi bearish divergences
5. Bearish anti butterfly harmonic pattern on the daily. First target at 3806 coinciding with bearish order block. Second target at 3558
6. The fifth wave of the Elliot Progression is completing signifying a potential drop
Bullish Narrative:
1. 10 Year Government Bond yield had increased to 4.016%, an uptick from the last swing low of 3.904%. If the bond yield trends higher, so will US500.
Await a confluence signifying a rejection from key levels such as order blocks and harmonic entries, then take a satisfying counter position. From this juncture, we update the next forecast.
Special note: NFP and FOMC news are coming soon. It is expected that the FED may temper the interest ratess as the US had already reached the desired levels to control inflation. If the next BP hike is at 75 or 50, then I expect an invalidation of the thesis and US500 to soar.
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
------
Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do you long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For Institutional ORDER BLOCK trades:
When price reaches a bearish or bullish orderblock, ascertain the price reversal by means of
1. Dojis
2. Morning/evening stars
3. Several wicks.
4. Engulfing candles or three white soldiers in the opposite direction
5. Marbouzou in the opposite direction.
6. Break of trendline or fast EMAs
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).
In partnership with capital markets research group Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital of Mahe, Seychelles
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