US500 Weekly Forecast – April Week 2
After Trump’s tariff news and the VIX spiking to 29, the S&P 500 (US500) showed signs of cracking. Last week’s candle broke the prior low at 5,092 and closed at 5,061, forming a clear bearish engulfing candle with strong downside momentum.
This confirms a structural breakdown, and the first major monthly demand zone sits at 4,600 — a likely target if fear accelerates.
Primary Scenario:
• Price could open with a short-term bullish correction toward 5,400 (equilibrium zone of the last leg).
• From there, we expect a sharp bearish continuation to 4,600
• Alternative: If Monday opens with panic (Black Monday scenario), price may dump straight into 4,600, creating a huge imbalance between 4,600–5,400.
• That imbalance could act as a magnet for a later retrace — and then another sell-off from higher again.
Bias: Bearish — watching for retest after potential panic move
Key Levels:
• Support: 4,600 (major monthly demand)
• Resistance / Rebalance Zone: 5,400 (equilibrium)
• Breakout Confirmation: Weekly close under 5,092 already done
This setup reflects both technical structure and the real fear in the market. If Black Monday unfolds, we may get a deep move followed by one of the cleanest bearish retests of the year.
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Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading
Let me know your bias in the comments.
#SPX #US500 #S&P500 #BlackMonday #MarketCrash #MacroView #SphinxWeekly #VIX #TrumpTariffs #Equities #LiquidityVoid
After Trump’s tariff news and the VIX spiking to 29, the S&P 500 (US500) showed signs of cracking. Last week’s candle broke the prior low at 5,092 and closed at 5,061, forming a clear bearish engulfing candle with strong downside momentum.
This confirms a structural breakdown, and the first major monthly demand zone sits at 4,600 — a likely target if fear accelerates.
Primary Scenario:
• Price could open with a short-term bullish correction toward 5,400 (equilibrium zone of the last leg).
• From there, we expect a sharp bearish continuation to 4,600
• Alternative: If Monday opens with panic (Black Monday scenario), price may dump straight into 4,600, creating a huge imbalance between 4,600–5,400.
• That imbalance could act as a magnet for a later retrace — and then another sell-off from higher again.
Bias: Bearish — watching for retest after potential panic move
Key Levels:
• Support: 4,600 (major monthly demand)
• Resistance / Rebalance Zone: 5,400 (equilibrium)
• Breakout Confirmation: Weekly close under 5,092 already done
This setup reflects both technical structure and the real fear in the market. If Black Monday unfolds, we may get a deep move followed by one of the cleanest bearish retests of the year.
—
Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading
Let me know your bias in the comments.
#SPX #US500 #S&P500 #BlackMonday #MarketCrash #MacroView #SphinxWeekly #VIX #TrumpTariffs #Equities #LiquidityVoid
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.