The market is fast and ATR is high so I make sure I have plans to both sides so as not to be caught out, but realistically I've done hardly any trading since the day we dropped 6% and the rallied to retest the high. That was the last day I took big positions (longs which hit trailing stops for 300 points) and since then I've been mainly watching.
Spectating rather than speculating. There are times to make money and times to lose it, it's good to know the difference between them.
In a simple bear trend, we could see a high here somewhere in the 5200 - 5300 range - but to best suit the things I expect to see in a good bull trap before a real drop, I'd like to 5800.
SPX at 5800 would convince me to start trying to trade big positions short again.
Spectating rather than speculating. There are times to make money and times to lose it, it's good to know the difference between them.
In a simple bear trend, we could see a high here somewhere in the 5200 - 5300 range - but to best suit the things I expect to see in a good bull trap before a real drop, I'd like to 5800.
SPX at 5800 would convince me to start trying to trade big positions short again.
Note
Would probably try a short 5330 if we ended up slowing down today and spiking up there tomorrow. We're at resistance now. So we'll see if it slows down or just slams through like would be typical of a bigger bull trap.
Trade closed manually
Got out all long positions today around 5370. I think this might be setting up a big rejection. Crash thesis is very much in play if we'd made a top in this zone. Would require there to be reasonable selling over the end of the month and then really bad selling the month after.
Note
In shorts now. 
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.