Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs has rattled global markets, reviving memories of the trade wars that defined his first term. With China, Canada, and Mexico retaliating in kind, the fear of an escalating economic conflict has sent stocks tumbling. But will this shake-up be enough to break the S&P 500’s long-term uptrend?
Trump’s New Tariff Wars
The sweeping trade measures target the US’s largest trade partners, imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, along with an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods. The White House has framed these moves as a response to fentanyl trafficking and border security concerns, but markets are treating them as a renewed assault on global trade.
China wasted no time in hitting back, slapping tariffs on US agricultural products and restricting exports of key biotech equipment. Canada, too, announced retaliatory measures, targeting $30 billion worth of US goods. The fallout was immediate—Wall Street suffered a sharp selloff, with the S&P 500 closing nearly 2% lower and the Nasdaq shedding 2.6%. Futures suggest European stocks will follow suit, while currency markets have seen a dip in the US dollar.
Is the S&P’s Uptrend Cracking?
The S&P 500’s relentless 2024 uptrend has struggled to extend into 2025. The index has now failed twice to break above the December highs, breaking last year’s pattern of higher swing highs. Instead, price action has settled into a range, with resistance forming at the December, January, and February swing highs, while support sits near the January lows—right at the bottom of the early-November election gap.
For swing traders, the key question is whether a bullish reversal will emerge at the lower end of this range. A strong bounce here could reinforce the current consolidation phase rather than signal a breakdown. Momentum traders, however, will be watching for a decisive break below the range, which could trigger panic selling and accelerate downside momentum.
From a long-term perspective, a single shakeout isn’t enough to derail a multi-year bull market. Even a break below the 200-day moving average—while significant for shorter-term trend followers—is unlikely to change the broader outlook for long-term investors. Trends of this magnitude take time and substantial effort to reverse.
S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Trump’s New Tariff Wars
The sweeping trade measures target the US’s largest trade partners, imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, along with an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods. The White House has framed these moves as a response to fentanyl trafficking and border security concerns, but markets are treating them as a renewed assault on global trade.
China wasted no time in hitting back, slapping tariffs on US agricultural products and restricting exports of key biotech equipment. Canada, too, announced retaliatory measures, targeting $30 billion worth of US goods. The fallout was immediate—Wall Street suffered a sharp selloff, with the S&P 500 closing nearly 2% lower and the Nasdaq shedding 2.6%. Futures suggest European stocks will follow suit, while currency markets have seen a dip in the US dollar.
Is the S&P’s Uptrend Cracking?
The S&P 500’s relentless 2024 uptrend has struggled to extend into 2025. The index has now failed twice to break above the December highs, breaking last year’s pattern of higher swing highs. Instead, price action has settled into a range, with resistance forming at the December, January, and February swing highs, while support sits near the January lows—right at the bottom of the early-November election gap.
For swing traders, the key question is whether a bullish reversal will emerge at the lower end of this range. A strong bounce here could reinforce the current consolidation phase rather than signal a breakdown. Momentum traders, however, will be watching for a decisive break below the range, which could trigger panic selling and accelerate downside momentum.
From a long-term perspective, a single shakeout isn’t enough to derail a multi-year bull market. Even a break below the 200-day moving average—while significant for shorter-term trend followers—is unlikely to change the broader outlook for long-term investors. Trends of this magnitude take time and substantial effort to reverse.
S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.