Gold has printed another clean rejection at the upper boundary of a short-term ascending channel on the 6H timeframe. This latest rejection adds further validity to the structure, suggesting that we may now see a healthy technical pullback toward the equilibrium line of the channel — and potentially down to the lower support boundary near the $3,000 psychological level.
Technical Outlook:
Fundamentals & Geopolitical Context (as of April 1, 2025):
Conclusion:
Long Term Gold Bull Target $4,200:
Previous Long (Target hit and closed at $3,100):
Previous Intra Long (Target hit and closed at $3,100):
Technical Outlook:
- Another rejection from channel resistance confirms structural validity.
- 1:4 risk-to-reward short opportunity with clear invalidation and confluence.
- Targets:
– TP1: $3,005 — channel midline + psychological level
– TP2: $2,955 — previous swing high + dynamic quarterly support - $3,000 psychological levels are often retested before continuation.
Fundamentals & Geopolitical Context (as of April 1, 2025):
- Gold's Macro Bull Trend Remains Intact
Despite this short-term setup, the broader macro backdrop continues to support gold:
– Central banks accumulating gold amid global de-dollarization
– Real yields remain negative across key regions
– Oil trading above $100 fuels inflationary pressure - Geopolitical Flashpoints Supporting Volatility
– Russia-Ukraine war shows no signs of easing
– Middle East tensions rising (Israel–Hezbollah conflict)
– Taiwan-U.S.-China escalation continues post-military exercises - Bitcoin Weakness = Gold Rotation Potential
– BTC struggling at $70K, showing early signs of distribution
– Miner pressure increasing ahead of halving
– Targeting possible correction to $50K = capital rotation into gold
Conclusion:
- Technical rejection at resistance aligns with macro expectations of a short-term pullback.
- $3,000 key psychological level likely to be retested before further upside.
- Gold remains in a macro bull market; this move is likely corrective within a larger expansion leg.
Long Term Gold Bull Target $4,200:
Previous Long (Target hit and closed at $3,100):
Previous Intra Long (Target hit and closed at $3,100):
Trade active
Trade closed: target reached
take profit 1 and 2 hit. Trade closed. Long entered.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.