Brazilian real is a buy here. Buy a basket of EMFX vs the USD
Updated
Coming into the new year, the reflationary trade was working quite well. In January, we saw a period of heightened volatility that stressed emerging markets. Brazil was no exception. That said, the weak dollar trend looks likely to resume in the next few months, after the positioning shake-out that we saw in January. Many hedge funds are still on the sidelines and scared to commit capital to risk-assets. They will be forced to do so in March when performance benchmarks come out. EMFX and commodity exporters should continue to perform strongly as the US pursues the largest stimulus package in history. Recently, the USD looks on the verge of breaking out to the upside, though I would much rather fade this move with a tight stop. In Brazil specifically, the likelihood of Selic rates being raised increases the chance of currency appreciation. There are no real organic sellers above 5.40. The risk/reward is for the BRL to rally significantly from here.
Trade active
Initially move lower has succeeded. We'll take a bit of profit here as the market makes money available to us. Staying short USDBRL as a core trade for now though...Trade closed manually
Stopping myself out of this one for now. There is too much headline risk and the broad DXY is making a lower high.
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