USD/CAD briefly registered in intraday low at 1.3540 last week before mounting a massive outside-weekly reversal off the yearly lows. The subsequent rally extended more than 1.9% off the low with the advance exhausting into resistance this week at 1.3795-1.3836- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the late-2023 advance, the April low-close, and the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range. Looking for inflection off this mark to offer guidance with the immediate recovery vulnerable while below.
Initial weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the June range at 1.3639 with key support steady at the 1.618% extension of the February decline / 78.6% retracement at 1.3504/23- look for a larger reaction there If reached with a close below needed to mark resumption of the yearly downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 2024 low-week clow (LWC) at 1.3360 and the 2023 LWC at 1.3218.
A topside breach / close above the 2022 trendline (red) is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger recovery is underway with the next major technical consideration eyed at 1.3963-1.4018- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 2022 swing high and the 38.2% retracement. A weekly close above this key pivot zone is ultimately needed to invalidate the yearly downtrend in USD/CAD.
Bottom line: A rebound off the yearly channel is now approaching initial resistance at former support- looking for possible price inflection off the 1.3795-1.3835 zone into the monthly cross. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to the 2022 trendline IF price is heading lower on this stretch / to validate a break of the multi-year uptrend with a close below 1.3504 still needed to mark resumption.
-MB
Initial weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the June range at 1.3639 with key support steady at the 1.618% extension of the February decline / 78.6% retracement at 1.3504/23- look for a larger reaction there If reached with a close below needed to mark resumption of the yearly downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 2024 low-week clow (LWC) at 1.3360 and the 2023 LWC at 1.3218.
A topside breach / close above the 2022 trendline (red) is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger recovery is underway with the next major technical consideration eyed at 1.3963-1.4018- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 2022 swing high and the 38.2% retracement. A weekly close above this key pivot zone is ultimately needed to invalidate the yearly downtrend in USD/CAD.
Bottom line: A rebound off the yearly channel is now approaching initial resistance at former support- looking for possible price inflection off the 1.3795-1.3835 zone into the monthly cross. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to the 2022 trendline IF price is heading lower on this stretch / to validate a break of the multi-year uptrend with a close below 1.3504 still needed to mark resumption.
-MB
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.