USDCAD Techinical and Fundamental Anslysis here
Updated
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental Analysis:
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- The USD/CAD pair has been experiencing a four-day losing streak recently, hovering around 1.3540 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. However, trading volumes are expected to be light due to Good Friday.
- The US Dollar’s strength may be attributed to the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s intention to maintain higher interest rates.
- The pair is currently challenging the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) following recent data releases from the US
- The USD/CAD pair’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 50, indicating a neutral stance. A move above 70 would signal overbought conditions, while a drop below 30 would suggest oversold conditions.
- Keep an eye on the support level at 1.3520. A break below this level could lead to further declines.
- On the upside, resistance lies near 1.3600. A decisive move above this level may indicate a potential bullish trend.
Fundamental Analysis:
- The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has retained gains despite the broad strength of the US Dollar.
- In 2023, the USD/CAD pair experienced a comparatively quiet year, influenced by broad-market flows into and out of the US Dollar. Investors grappled with Fed policy, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate policy remained in lockstep with Fed rate guidance. However, 2024 is expected to be more interesting as central bank policies face increasing risk of divergence. The Canadian economy is accelerating into a recession in the first half of 2024.
- The Canadian economy has been resilient, supported by robust commodity prices and a strong housing market. However, uncertainties remain due to the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and global economic recovery.
- The US Dollar continues to be influenced by monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve. Any hints of a rate hike or tapering of asset purchases could impact the USD/CAD pair.
- Oil prices play a significant role in the CAD’s performance, given Canada’s status as a major oil exporter. Keep an eye on developments in the energy market.
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