Based on the Smart Money Concepts methodology, we have identified a strong demand zone on the daily timeframe, which has once again given a strong rejection, changing the price character from bullish to bearish on the H1 timeframe.
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H1
Swing Structure:
Bearish CHoCH from higher timeframe zone rejection. Took inducement and now ready for a corrective swing move with its 1st pullback. Internal structure turned bullish for a correction towards extreme and decisional POI (Order Flow or Order Block). Preferred POI: Order Flow in the Premier zone of the swing. Entry Model: Regular SMC. Daily Resistance: Supply zone where sellers still have full control, with the 3rd breakout attempt failure.
Pattern:
🟢 Chart Patterns: Reversal: Head and Shoulders pattern is clearly visible and completed. 🟢 Candle Patterns: Observed multiple reversal candlestick patterns on the daily timeframe, including Doji, Long Wick, Engulfing, and Dark Clouds. These patterns indicate strong bearish momentum at the level. Volume:
🟢 Very massive volume observed on the daily timeframe right before and after rejection, with the price reacting bearish. This is a strong indication for a sell position. Momentum RSI:
🟢 Price is in the bullish zone yet, but strange things are noted in terms of momentum on the daily timeframe. 🟢 Strongest 3-candle divergence and loud moves. According to Andrew Cardwell's method (used for momentum analysis with RSI), loud moves are almost 90% confirmed moves. Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 After one of the longest contraction phases, the breakout to the upper side was unable to give the expected move and was rejected after a squeeze breakout. 🟢 Walking on the band took a rejection with a head fake, indicating strong bearish control here. Strength ADX: Neutral
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Entry Time Frame: H1 Entry TF Structure: Bearish CHoCH POI: Waiting for mitigation Decision: Sell limit order with extreme risk (as per my money management strategy).
🚀 Entry: 1.3855 ✋ Stop loss: 1.3955 🎯 Take profit: 1.2818 😊 Risk to reward Ratio: 11 RR 🕛 Expected Duration: 45 Days
SUMMARY: Based on the comprehensive analysis using Smart Money Concepts, a sell limit order at 1.3855 with a stop loss at 1.3955 and a take profit at 1.2818 is recommended. The setup shows strong bearish indications across various parameters, making it a high-probability trade. The expected duration for this trade is 45 days with a risk to reward ratio of 11 RR.
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