Fundamental & Technical Analysis on USDCAD Short
Updated
Fundamental: The COT Report for Canadian Dollar is showing a increase in Open Interest (OI) which is a Bearish sign. Commercial (Hedgers) Long positions are increasing at the same time OI is increasing which means they are covering their Longs and is also considered Bearish. Non-Commercial Short positions are increasing as well adding to the Bearish sentiment.
COT Report: cot-reports.com/commitments-of-traders-cot-reports-non-commercial-detailed/
Technical: We have the 5 EMA crossing down the 20 EMA while price action is underneath both, Momentum is negative, and the %K line is underneath the 50% line.
Targets/Stop Loss: I'm using a Fib retracement from a recent Low to a High to determine my Take Profits and Stop Loss. My Stop Loss is at the 0.236 Fib LVL which is $1.38783 on the chart. At every TP I take half of my position off, for TP #1 I'm aiming for the 1.272Fib LVL which is $1.35778 on the chart, TP #2 is the 1.414Fib LVL which is $1.35366 on the chart, and the TP #3 is at the 1.618Fib LVL which is $1.34774. TP #4 is at the 2Fib LVL, TP #5 is at 2.272Fib LVL, and TP #6 is the final one which is at 2.618Fib LVL.
COT Report: cot-reports.com/commitments-of-traders-cot-reports-non-commercial-detailed/
Technical: We have the 5 EMA crossing down the 20 EMA while price action is underneath both, Momentum is negative, and the %K line is underneath the 50% line.
Targets/Stop Loss: I'm using a Fib retracement from a recent Low to a High to determine my Take Profits and Stop Loss. My Stop Loss is at the 0.236 Fib LVL which is $1.38783 on the chart. At every TP I take half of my position off, for TP #1 I'm aiming for the 1.272Fib LVL which is $1.35778 on the chart, TP #2 is the 1.414Fib LVL which is $1.35366 on the chart, and the TP #3 is at the 1.618Fib LVL which is $1.34774. TP #4 is at the 2Fib LVL, TP #5 is at 2.272Fib LVL, and TP #6 is the final one which is at 2.618Fib LVL.
Trade active
I've entered a Short position a little above the 0.786Fib LVL which is around $1.37188 on the chart. Like I mentioned above I will be exiting half of my position if Take Profit #1 is hit. Trade closed manually
Take Profit #1 at Fib LVL 1.272 has been hit, I have exited half of my position and moved my Stop Loss to break even Trade closed manually
Take Profit #2 at Fib LVL 1.414 has now been hit. I've taken another half position off, leave the rest running. Stop loss is still at Break Even just incase it decides to reverse.Trade closed manually
I've taken another half position off at Take Profit #3, Fib LVL 1.618. Like I've mentions above my Stop Loss is still at Break Even incase of a reversal, if you'll like you could move the Stop Loss lower into profit but i personally like keeping it at break even. Let the runners keep running.
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