USD/CAD - Scenario
Updated
Hey guys,
My visions on the USD/CAD are strictly hypothetical, but with the political situation and all the conflicts going on now at a very high level in the US capitol, I believe the USD is headed for a downswing. One very important report that might change everything or help us in this plan is the NFP this Friday, so if you are trading using this plan, keep the report in mind and I would suggest you to close 80% of your positions before the report comes out. This is the safest approach which I would also be taking. Now a little bit about the pair:
On the daily graph the price reached a top at around 1.3750. From there we saw a huge down movement which left the price hanging below a previous resistance level, from which it bounced a few times in the past and made some nice movements. Currently the pair is staying below that resistance and is forming a square on H4 time frame. The square is confirmed also by the Bollinger Bands which are squeezing the price at the moment. My scenario is that the price breaks the bottom of the square, moves down to the level I highlighted in orange, after which we might see a small correction up, reaching the bottom of the broken square and a new downtrend from there. You can open a position when the square is broken, putting your SL somewhere around 1.3470 or above the square. Also you can look for opportunities on the M30 or M15 time frame to trade inside of the trend.
Sell zone 1: 1.3380 to 1.3220
Sell zone 2: 1.3195 to 1.3025
I will keep updating the plan and ideas as the movement develops.
A scenario of the pair going above the resistance area and moving up from there is more unlikely, so if that happens I will update the plan accordingly.
For more of my plans and dissections of plans, showing you trades we could have taken you can check my companies blog: dmtrading.bg/blog/?lang=en
I wish everyone good luck and profitable trading.
My visions on the USD/CAD are strictly hypothetical, but with the political situation and all the conflicts going on now at a very high level in the US capitol, I believe the USD is headed for a downswing. One very important report that might change everything or help us in this plan is the NFP this Friday, so if you are trading using this plan, keep the report in mind and I would suggest you to close 80% of your positions before the report comes out. This is the safest approach which I would also be taking. Now a little bit about the pair:
On the daily graph the price reached a top at around 1.3750. From there we saw a huge down movement which left the price hanging below a previous resistance level, from which it bounced a few times in the past and made some nice movements. Currently the pair is staying below that resistance and is forming a square on H4 time frame. The square is confirmed also by the Bollinger Bands which are squeezing the price at the moment. My scenario is that the price breaks the bottom of the square, moves down to the level I highlighted in orange, after which we might see a small correction up, reaching the bottom of the broken square and a new downtrend from there. You can open a position when the square is broken, putting your SL somewhere around 1.3470 or above the square. Also you can look for opportunities on the M30 or M15 time frame to trade inside of the trend.
Sell zone 1: 1.3380 to 1.3220
Sell zone 2: 1.3195 to 1.3025
I will keep updating the plan and ideas as the movement develops.
A scenario of the pair going above the resistance area and moving up from there is more unlikely, so if that happens I will update the plan accordingly.
For more of my plans and dissections of plans, showing you trades we could have taken you can check my companies blog: dmtrading.bg/blog/?lang=en
I wish everyone good luck and profitable trading.
Note
Price went up, but it is still in a zone where a possible retracement and a downtrend might occur. I will wait for the NFP results and Unemployment report to assess and I will start trading the pair on Monday.Order cancelled
I am still monitoring this pair and I am waiting for the range to come to an end. I am closing this trading idea and if I see a potential development I will post a new updated idea for this pair. I did not manage to trade the pair for now.
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