USDCAD Here is what to look for NOW

Updated

We are seeing a consolidation right now. COT data is showing more bearish positioning so be carefull and dont jump into a BUY position if it doesnt show clear signals.

LONG:

We want to see bullish sentiment kicking in = Higher low, respecting last structure.
Only if we close above the range, we can look out for a retest of the resistance (turned support)
In the retest zone we need a valid entry (respecting the new support, no close below, ... )
Entry and Stoploss will be updated if we get there.

SHORT:
Only If we break below the consolidation range we will talk about an entry. Of course we will look out for a retest of the last support mainly. We have to see what happens.

Fundamentals:
Oil is still not breaking out of its tight/flat range, but if Oilprices are rising it could pull down USDCAD more. In general USD is getting more and more devalued fundamentaly. So we are more short then Long.

At the end, we trade what we see, be prepared.

Note

We reached the retest of structure, only when we see a reversal and no close below the 1.3177, we are allowed to take a long position. SL will be under the correction low. we have to wait for confirmation tho.

Note

A close above 1.32000 is a valid entry signal for a BUY. SL 1.31570 TP 1.33600 R:R 1:4. We only enter if the rules are met.

Note

We did not get a valid entry signal for a buy so far and prices went back to support. But the structure looks more bearish now I am not comfortable to take a trade here even tho its support. Dollar Index DXY looks still bearish and only if DXY closes above 94, a Dollar strength is confirmed (in my opinion). Until then we have to be extra carefull. So, no trade so far.

Note

Hi guys!

Big things happened the last days, which were the reason we didnt get a long entry. Wich is very good, because patience and ruled based entries saved us from losses.

Here is what happened:
The FED Chairman J. Powell announced that the inflation rate is aimed at 2% BUT can exceed this average without any intervention of the FED. FED keeps interest rate at 0% for more years, maybe even the next five years. Printed money will be used to support companies to recover and increase number of employees. Exceeding the inflation rate and continued quantitative easing (money printing) is a sign for weakness of the dollar. In contrast, it can push stocks heavily because money is cheap. If money is cheap Gold is rising.

The question will be if the FED is able to stabilize inflation rate with an already low interest rate of 0.25%. Not much room left. This uncertainty lead to a decrease of USD and appreciation of Gold.

Note

Chances are now to monitor prices around 1.31200 for a retest and new impuls downwards.

TheNotoriousTraderFX

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