USD/CAD - SHORT SCENARIOS - ANALYSE – W
Updated
The "USDCAD" is in an uptrend since May – 2021, and it stands to reason that we can expect a top soon if necessary.
-> The USD is the base currency of the pair and should, shortly, enter a correction.
-> At which key areas we can expect a Local Top, I will analyze in more detail in today's post.
-> For this, we will look at the "USDCAD" from the weekly view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
table of contents
- 1st part = EXPLANATION - Used indicators + levels
- 2nd part = SCENARIOS - pro + con breakdown
- 3rd part = CONCLUSION
FIRST PART
1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - March/2020 - and ended in - May/2021 -.
-> 0.75 FIB = 1.40031 points | Pending processing
-> 0.786 FIB = 1.40989 points | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 1.43491 points | Pending processing
> As "BLUE" lines - drawn in the chart.
2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the move,
which started in - July/2022 - and ended in - August/2022 -.
-> 2.618 FIB = 1.40258 points | Pending processing
> As "PASTELL ORANGE" lines - drawn in the chart.
3. | SUPPLY ZONES |
The supply zones formed at the beginning of the downward movement,
thus they were created and in - March-May/2020.
-> MONTH ZONE = 1.38502 - 1.46685 points | Pending processing
-> WEEK ZONE = 1.38502 - 1.41409 points | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 1 | = 1.39686- 1.40488 points | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 2 | = 1,43750- 1,46685 points | Pending processing
> As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart.
4. | POINT OF INTEREST |
The points of psychological interest,
were created the first time - in 2003 - and showed some reactions since then.
-> POI | 1 | = 1.38500 points | Pending processing
-> POI | 2 | = 1,40000 points | Pending processing
-> POI | 3 | = 1.41000 points | Pending processing
-> POI | 4 | = 1,46500 points | Pending processing
| POI should be used as resistance in the upcoming situation.
| POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact resistance.
> As "TURKIS" line - drawn in the chart.
5. | VOLUME PROFILE |
The volume profile describes the cumulative trading volume at each price level. In the analysis, the volume of the last "TOP" formation was analyzed.
-> VOLUME ZONE = 1.40100 - 1.41100 points | Pending processing
-> POC = 1.40500 - 1.40700 points | Pending processing
| Point of Control - The price level with the highest traded volume.
5. | OLD MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK |
The old market structure break, represents a psychological level because it was the decisive point in the last corrective move.
| MSB = 1.38502 points | Pending processing
PART TWO
Once the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level.
PLEASE NOTE - the USD is the base currency of the USD/CAD, so we are 100% dependent on the performance of the DXY.
1. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.38500 points (Unlikely)
What speaks for this?
- "OLD MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK"
- "SUPPLY ZONES | W1 + M1"
- "POI (1)
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY!
What is against it?
- "VOLUME PROFILE" = little traded volume.
- "FIBONACCI" = between 0.618 - 0.75 FIB
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
2nd | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.40000 - 1.41000 points (Very likely)
What speaks in favor of this?
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) | 0.75 + 0.786 FIB"
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) | 2.618 FIB"
- "SUPPLY ZONES | W1 + M1 + D1 (1)"
- "POINT OF INTEREST (2) + (3)
- "VOLUME ZONE
- "POC
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY!
What is the argument against it?
- "FIBONACCI" = 0.88 FIB
- "SUPPLY ZONE" = D1 (2) liquidity
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
3. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.43500 points (Unlikely)
What speaks in favor of this?
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) | 0.88 FIB"
- "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (2)"
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY!
What is the argument against it?
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
CONCLUSION
It is impossible to say at this time what the exact scenario for "USDCAD" will be.
= Despite this, the key points I have presented, will most likely trigger a reaction.
-> As soon as the TOP formation emerges, I will upload a detailed SHORT execution.
-> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review.
Thank you and happy trading!
-> The USD is the base currency of the pair and should, shortly, enter a correction.
-> At which key areas we can expect a Local Top, I will analyze in more detail in today's post.
-> For this, we will look at the "USDCAD" from the weekly view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
table of contents
- 1st part = EXPLANATION - Used indicators + levels
- 2nd part = SCENARIOS - pro + con breakdown
- 3rd part = CONCLUSION
FIRST PART
1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - March/2020 - and ended in - May/2021 -.
-> 0.75 FIB = 1.40031 points | Pending processing
-> 0.786 FIB = 1.40989 points | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 1.43491 points | Pending processing
> As "BLUE" lines - drawn in the chart.
2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the move,
which started in - July/2022 - and ended in - August/2022 -.
-> 2.618 FIB = 1.40258 points | Pending processing
> As "PASTELL ORANGE" lines - drawn in the chart.
3. | SUPPLY ZONES |
The supply zones formed at the beginning of the downward movement,
thus they were created and in - March-May/2020.
-> MONTH ZONE = 1.38502 - 1.46685 points | Pending processing
-> WEEK ZONE = 1.38502 - 1.41409 points | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 1 | = 1.39686- 1.40488 points | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 2 | = 1,43750- 1,46685 points | Pending processing
> As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart.
4. | POINT OF INTEREST |
The points of psychological interest,
were created the first time - in 2003 - and showed some reactions since then.
-> POI | 1 | = 1.38500 points | Pending processing
-> POI | 2 | = 1,40000 points | Pending processing
-> POI | 3 | = 1.41000 points | Pending processing
-> POI | 4 | = 1,46500 points | Pending processing
| POI should be used as resistance in the upcoming situation.
| POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact resistance.
> As "TURKIS" line - drawn in the chart.
5. | VOLUME PROFILE |
The volume profile describes the cumulative trading volume at each price level. In the analysis, the volume of the last "TOP" formation was analyzed.
-> VOLUME ZONE = 1.40100 - 1.41100 points | Pending processing
-> POC = 1.40500 - 1.40700 points | Pending processing
| Point of Control - The price level with the highest traded volume.
5. | OLD MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK |
The old market structure break, represents a psychological level because it was the decisive point in the last corrective move.
| MSB = 1.38502 points | Pending processing
PART TWO
Once the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level.
PLEASE NOTE - the USD is the base currency of the USD/CAD, so we are 100% dependent on the performance of the DXY.
1. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.38500 points (Unlikely)
What speaks for this?
- "OLD MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK"
- "SUPPLY ZONES | W1 + M1"
- "POI (1)
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY!
What is against it?
- "VOLUME PROFILE" = little traded volume.
- "FIBONACCI" = between 0.618 - 0.75 FIB
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
2nd | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.40000 - 1.41000 points (Very likely)
What speaks in favor of this?
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) | 0.75 + 0.786 FIB"
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) | 2.618 FIB"
- "SUPPLY ZONES | W1 + M1 + D1 (1)"
- "POINT OF INTEREST (2) + (3)
- "VOLUME ZONE
- "POC
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY!
What is the argument against it?
- "FIBONACCI" = 0.88 FIB
- "SUPPLY ZONE" = D1 (2) liquidity
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
3. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.43500 points (Unlikely)
What speaks in favor of this?
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) | 0.88 FIB"
- "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (2)"
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY!
What is the argument against it?
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
CONCLUSION
It is impossible to say at this time what the exact scenario for "USDCAD" will be.
= Despite this, the key points I have presented, will most likely trigger a reaction.
-> As soon as the TOP formation emerges, I will upload a detailed SHORT execution.
-> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review.
Thank you and happy trading!
Note
Scenario no.1 can be ruled out now, as we have broken the previous HH.Scenario no.2+3 are still open:
- with greater probability of scenario 2.
- let's see how the DXY performs and the FED / monetary policy events this week.
Trade closed: target reached
Scenario no. 2 has occurred, as foreseen by the analysis.
Even though the target zone was not touched 100%, it can be said that the trade was successfully completed.
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