The price have been in a uptrend previously, that is followed up by correctional waves.
The correctional waves have been in a strong downwards momentum with low momentum for the consolidation areas followed up by a strong retracement momentum. the price have resistance at 1.28025. while a break can drive the price to 1.28670 which is also 0.707 on fibonacci drawn from the red 0 to ((v))
If the price does not break the 1.28025 level we could se a confirmation on the bearish correctional trend, where 1.24472 and 1.22998 should be closely watched. We also have a bearish hidden divergence within the price chart and RSI.
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Fundamental.
Monday April 23: in the US we have Chicago fed national activity index (inflation pressure) which is expected to be 0,47 less at 0.41 where previously data showed 0.88. We also have market Service, composite and manufactoring PMI numbers which is expected to hold a steady level from last data release. where composite PMI is expected to be 55.3 from last data at 54.2. existing home sales (MoM) is also expected to hold a steady level where consensus is 5.55M from last numbers at 5.54M and last yeas numbers for Marts where at 5.48M. Numbers from Canada are very Thin, and no important numbers are coming out monday.
Tuesday April 24: We have Housing price index (MoM) (Feb) for US. The index is expected to be 0.3% lower than previously from 0.8% and therefore consensus at 0.5%. Last years numbers where at 0.4%. S&P Case Shiller Home price indices (feb) is also released where consensus is 6.2% from last numbers at 6.4% and last years numbers at 5.6%.
Thursday April 26: Continuing jobless claims from the US is released where it previously was at 1.863M, and a consensus at 1.835M for April13. We also have durable goods order for Marts which is expected to be 2.1% less than previously at 3.1% and therefor a consensus at 1.0%. last years numbers showed 1.7% for Marts.
Friday April 27: GDP Price index (Q1) is released by US. where the previously numbers was 2.3% and have a consensus of 2.0%. and last years numbers at 2.2%. GDP Annualized (Q1) is also released where the previous numbers where at 2.9% with a consensus of 2.3% and last years numbers 0.7%. Core Personal consumption expenditures (QoQ) (Q1) will also be closely watched, where consensus is 1.5% down with 0.4% from last numbers at 1.9%.
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We have for a long trade.
1. Break of the 1.28025 level could drive the prices higher, to 1.28670.
2. Easing Trade war tensions.
3. Decrease in oil-prices.
4. good data from US.
____
Short trade.
1. ending of impulsive waves and entered correctional area.
2. hidden bearish divergence.
3. Consensus of bad date from US
4. Price near resistance area.
5. dumping of US currencies from countries.
6. Geopolitical risks.
7. increasing oil prices, as a consequence of geopolitical tensions.
The correctional waves have been in a strong downwards momentum with low momentum for the consolidation areas followed up by a strong retracement momentum. the price have resistance at 1.28025. while a break can drive the price to 1.28670 which is also 0.707 on fibonacci drawn from the red 0 to ((v))
If the price does not break the 1.28025 level we could se a confirmation on the bearish correctional trend, where 1.24472 and 1.22998 should be closely watched. We also have a bearish hidden divergence within the price chart and RSI.
______
Fundamental.
Monday April 23: in the US we have Chicago fed national activity index (inflation pressure) which is expected to be 0,47 less at 0.41 where previously data showed 0.88. We also have market Service, composite and manufactoring PMI numbers which is expected to hold a steady level from last data release. where composite PMI is expected to be 55.3 from last data at 54.2. existing home sales (MoM) is also expected to hold a steady level where consensus is 5.55M from last numbers at 5.54M and last yeas numbers for Marts where at 5.48M. Numbers from Canada are very Thin, and no important numbers are coming out monday.
Tuesday April 24: We have Housing price index (MoM) (Feb) for US. The index is expected to be 0.3% lower than previously from 0.8% and therefore consensus at 0.5%. Last years numbers where at 0.4%. S&P Case Shiller Home price indices (feb) is also released where consensus is 6.2% from last numbers at 6.4% and last years numbers at 5.6%.
Thursday April 26: Continuing jobless claims from the US is released where it previously was at 1.863M, and a consensus at 1.835M for April13. We also have durable goods order for Marts which is expected to be 2.1% less than previously at 3.1% and therefor a consensus at 1.0%. last years numbers showed 1.7% for Marts.
Friday April 27: GDP Price index (Q1) is released by US. where the previously numbers was 2.3% and have a consensus of 2.0%. and last years numbers at 2.2%. GDP Annualized (Q1) is also released where the previous numbers where at 2.9% with a consensus of 2.3% and last years numbers 0.7%. Core Personal consumption expenditures (QoQ) (Q1) will also be closely watched, where consensus is 1.5% down with 0.4% from last numbers at 1.9%.
______
We have for a long trade.
1. Break of the 1.28025 level could drive the prices higher, to 1.28670.
2. Easing Trade war tensions.
3. Decrease in oil-prices.
4. good data from US.
____
Short trade.
1. ending of impulsive waves and entered correctional area.
2. hidden bearish divergence.
3. Consensus of bad date from US
4. Price near resistance area.
5. dumping of US currencies from countries.
6. Geopolitical risks.
7. increasing oil prices, as a consequence of geopolitical tensions.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.