Seeing that many other pairs lack fundamental announcements next week, USD/CAD seems to be one which may have volume kicking in.
There are three scenarios that I am looking at.
First of all we have to note the bullish pennant price is about to break out from. Therefore I look at two scenarios.
First is the break to the upside, price breaking the trendline, resting either the trendline itself or the structure resistance at 1.4050 and then the continuation push towards 1.5000 upside target, a key psychological level, where the institutional investors are looking to sell. This may include a manipulative move like liquidity being pushed in to provoke retail traders to go long which would help the institutions to execute their short positions.
Second setup is a manipulative move to push the price down through the support to execute long trades from next 4h structure support (red arrows). By pushing the price down, institutions trick the retail traders to go short on USD, but instead of following the price action down, the institutions will execute their long trades, again, to reach the 1.5000 key psychological level from where they can execute short trades.
These are some of the thoughs I have on this pair. Not really sure if dollar can go higher than 1.5000 but from institutional perspective, this would be a great point to place shorts from.
Next week I will look out for:
- trendline breakout/retest
- retest of previous 4h structure support at 1.3750 for long execution
- in case of dollar weakness, break of 1.3950 support level, but since this move could be a part of larger manipulation, then risk management is key and better to wait for 137.50 to break and retest before going short. Downside projection is 1.3500 round key level.
There are three scenarios that I am looking at.
First of all we have to note the bullish pennant price is about to break out from. Therefore I look at two scenarios.
First is the break to the upside, price breaking the trendline, resting either the trendline itself or the structure resistance at 1.4050 and then the continuation push towards 1.5000 upside target, a key psychological level, where the institutional investors are looking to sell. This may include a manipulative move like liquidity being pushed in to provoke retail traders to go long which would help the institutions to execute their short positions.
Second setup is a manipulative move to push the price down through the support to execute long trades from next 4h structure support (red arrows). By pushing the price down, institutions trick the retail traders to go short on USD, but instead of following the price action down, the institutions will execute their long trades, again, to reach the 1.5000 key psychological level from where they can execute short trades.
These are some of the thoughs I have on this pair. Not really sure if dollar can go higher than 1.5000 but from institutional perspective, this would be a great point to place shorts from.
Next week I will look out for:
- trendline breakout/retest
- retest of previous 4h structure support at 1.3750 for long execution
- in case of dollar weakness, break of 1.3950 support level, but since this move could be a part of larger manipulation, then risk management is key and better to wait for 137.50 to break and retest before going short. Downside projection is 1.3500 round key level.
Note
USD/CAD about to enter the long entry zone finally. This week the price broke the support and got stuck at the resistance, possible manipulative move as was expected. Now waiting for markets to open and create a new higher low and possible reversal from the 1.4000 level.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.