USDCAD - Waiting for CAD Rate Announcement
Updated
The USDCAD pair has been sideway after a quick drop and rebounce as 3 of the Fed members spoke dovishly.
Today is gonna be a big day for CAD. Generally since Bank of Canada is expected to keep rate, the hint will be in the statement so we may see a bit more volatility back and forth during the announcement as people figuring out their next move. Looking forward on the calendar we generally have good numbers coming out for CAD while USD has some mixed signal with Trade Balance expected to be worsen while ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI expected to be good.
Overall sentiment is bearish for USDCAD in my opinion, I would expect USDCAD to drift downward or flat toward news announcement. The IG Sentiment has Net Long so again, this makes me bearish. In fact if the USDCAD proceed to rise until nearer the rate decision, I will look to go Short as this provides very good risk-reward.
Technical level to watch is round number 1.24 and 1.23, Weekly Pivot 1.2377.
Today is gonna be a big day for CAD. Generally since Bank of Canada is expected to keep rate, the hint will be in the statement so we may see a bit more volatility back and forth during the announcement as people figuring out their next move. Looking forward on the calendar we generally have good numbers coming out for CAD while USD has some mixed signal with Trade Balance expected to be worsen while ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI expected to be good.
Overall sentiment is bearish for USDCAD in my opinion, I would expect USDCAD to drift downward or flat toward news announcement. The IG Sentiment has Net Long so again, this makes me bearish. In fact if the USDCAD proceed to rise until nearer the rate decision, I will look to go Short as this provides very good risk-reward.
Technical level to watch is round number 1.24 and 1.23, Weekly Pivot 1.2377.
Note
Thesis is intact but I find trading the GBPCAD makes more sense given its stronger pull back.For those still looking to play I still think you can enter now to fade the news. Rationale is similar to my GBPCAD short.
"Safe" stop-loss in my opinion is above the Pivot 1.243
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