📊 Market Context
The USD/CAD exchange rate has shown recent volatility with a significant surge followed by a retracement phase. The market is reacting to expectations regarding decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada (BoC), as well as fluctuations in oil prices, a key factor for the Canadian dollar.
🔍 Technical Analysis
The chart analysis highlights the following key levels:
Main Resistance: 1.4521 → Located in the upper zone of the chart, this level could act as a barrier to further bullish movements.
Key Supports: 1.4333 - 1.4265 - 1.4239 → These levels have previously acted as bounce points and could provide a base for price recovery.
Market Structure: The price reacted with a strong green candle after testing the lower support area, followed by a correction phase.
Bullish Momentum: If the price holds above 1.4265, it could attempt another push towards 1.4521.
📌 Potential Bullish Scenario: If the price remains above 1.4265, we could see another push towards 1.45 and beyond.
📌 Bearish Scenario: A break below 1.4239 could trigger a sharper decline towards the 1.41 - 1.40 range.
🌍 Fundamental Analysis
Federal Reserve: The Fed is assessing the impact of its monetary policies, with markets speculating on a potential rate cut by mid-year.
Bank of Canada: The BoC maintains a cautious approach, monitoring inflation and the labor market.
Oil Prices: The CAD is correlated with oil prices, so an increase in crude oil could strengthen the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD lower.
🎯 Conclusion
Main Bias: Bullish above 1.4265, targeting 1.45.
Trend Invalidation: Below 1.4239, a potential downward correction could occur.
The USD/CAD exchange rate has shown recent volatility with a significant surge followed by a retracement phase. The market is reacting to expectations regarding decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada (BoC), as well as fluctuations in oil prices, a key factor for the Canadian dollar.
🔍 Technical Analysis
The chart analysis highlights the following key levels:
Main Resistance: 1.4521 → Located in the upper zone of the chart, this level could act as a barrier to further bullish movements.
Key Supports: 1.4333 - 1.4265 - 1.4239 → These levels have previously acted as bounce points and could provide a base for price recovery.
Market Structure: The price reacted with a strong green candle after testing the lower support area, followed by a correction phase.
Bullish Momentum: If the price holds above 1.4265, it could attempt another push towards 1.4521.
📌 Potential Bullish Scenario: If the price remains above 1.4265, we could see another push towards 1.45 and beyond.
📌 Bearish Scenario: A break below 1.4239 could trigger a sharper decline towards the 1.41 - 1.40 range.
🌍 Fundamental Analysis
Federal Reserve: The Fed is assessing the impact of its monetary policies, with markets speculating on a potential rate cut by mid-year.
Bank of Canada: The BoC maintains a cautious approach, monitoring inflation and the labor market.
Oil Prices: The CAD is correlated with oil prices, so an increase in crude oil could strengthen the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD lower.
🎯 Conclusion
Main Bias: Bullish above 1.4265, targeting 1.45.
Trend Invalidation: Below 1.4239, a potential downward correction could occur.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.