USD/CHF has broken down from a long-term range — and is now retesting that breakdown area as
the market weighs diverging macro signals. With safe-haven demand lifting the franc and improving
US data supporting the dollar, this is a classic battle between structure and sentiment.
Flight to Safety vs Improving US Economic Data
The initial break lower in April came as money flowed into the franc on a wave of risk aversion and
safe-haven demand following Trump’s tariff announcement. But sentiment has shifted in recent
weeks. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report showed stronger-than-expected job creation and a rise in
labour force participation, while weekly hours remained steady. Although wage growth softened
slightly, there was nothing in the data to accelerate rate cut bets — and that’s given the dollar some
breathing room.
At the same time, the Swiss National Bank is facing the opposite challenge. Annual CPI for April came
in flat at 0.0%, down from 0.3% in March and uncomfortably close to outright deflation. With the
SNB already having delivered a rate cut in March — ahead of the Fed — markets are now
questioning whether negative interest rates could return if inflation stays subdued. That policy
divergence has fuelled a modest retracement in USD/CHF over the past fortnight.
Retesting the Breakdown
On the weekly candle chart, the break of long-term support in April marked a decisive shift in
structure. The pair had been trapped in a wide range for months, but the sell-off sliced through the
bottom of that range, confirming bearish momentum and ushering in a new phase of downside
exploration. Since then, we’ve seen a period of sideways consolidation as USD/CHF grinds along the
lower end of the chart.
Crucially, the pair has now retested that old support level — and it’s struggling to reclaim it. Price
has stalled beneath this zones, which reinforces the idea that it has flipped from support to
resistance.
USD/CHF Weekly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Zooming in on the daily chart, the recent bounce off April’s lows has run into trouble. Price action
over the last week has carved out a small double top-type formation following the retracement —
not a classic top in the trend sense, but a clear sign of hesitation. This stalling comes right at the
21EMA, offering dynamic resistance in line with the broader bearish trend.
A clean break below last week’s lows would be a strong signal that the corrective bounce is over —
and could open the door for a retest of April’s low, or potentially deeper downside, in line with the
prevailing trend and market structure.
This is a classic break-and-retest setup — and with fundamentals pushing in both directions, the
technical levels will likely determine who wins the next round.
USD/CHF Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not
constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or
objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not
a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK
residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly
due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs
with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work
and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
the market weighs diverging macro signals. With safe-haven demand lifting the franc and improving
US data supporting the dollar, this is a classic battle between structure and sentiment.
Flight to Safety vs Improving US Economic Data
The initial break lower in April came as money flowed into the franc on a wave of risk aversion and
safe-haven demand following Trump’s tariff announcement. But sentiment has shifted in recent
weeks. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report showed stronger-than-expected job creation and a rise in
labour force participation, while weekly hours remained steady. Although wage growth softened
slightly, there was nothing in the data to accelerate rate cut bets — and that’s given the dollar some
breathing room.
At the same time, the Swiss National Bank is facing the opposite challenge. Annual CPI for April came
in flat at 0.0%, down from 0.3% in March and uncomfortably close to outright deflation. With the
SNB already having delivered a rate cut in March — ahead of the Fed — markets are now
questioning whether negative interest rates could return if inflation stays subdued. That policy
divergence has fuelled a modest retracement in USD/CHF over the past fortnight.
Retesting the Breakdown
On the weekly candle chart, the break of long-term support in April marked a decisive shift in
structure. The pair had been trapped in a wide range for months, but the sell-off sliced through the
bottom of that range, confirming bearish momentum and ushering in a new phase of downside
exploration. Since then, we’ve seen a period of sideways consolidation as USD/CHF grinds along the
lower end of the chart.
Crucially, the pair has now retested that old support level — and it’s struggling to reclaim it. Price
has stalled beneath this zones, which reinforces the idea that it has flipped from support to
resistance.
USD/CHF Weekly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Zooming in on the daily chart, the recent bounce off April’s lows has run into trouble. Price action
over the last week has carved out a small double top-type formation following the retracement —
not a classic top in the trend sense, but a clear sign of hesitation. This stalling comes right at the
21EMA, offering dynamic resistance in line with the broader bearish trend.
A clean break below last week’s lows would be a strong signal that the corrective bounce is over —
and could open the door for a retest of April’s low, or potentially deeper downside, in line with the
prevailing trend and market structure.
This is a classic break-and-retest setup — and with fundamentals pushing in both directions, the
technical levels will likely determine who wins the next round.
USD/CHF Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not
constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or
objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not
a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK
residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly
due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs
with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work
and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.