USD/CHF:
For those who read Thursday’s report you may recall the following:
The next upside targets on the H4 timeframe can be seen around the 0.9877 August 23 high, closely trailed by resistance plotted at 0.9890 and then the 0.99 handle as the final port of call.
Weekly impetus derived from the 2018 yearly opening level at 0.9744 (support), which has an upside target set at supply coming in from 1.0014-0.9892, and daily price finding its feet off trend line support taken from the low 0.9542, is likely to fuel upside above 0.98 on the H4 scale. Note the next upside target on the daily timeframe can be seen in the form of a trend line resistance (etched from the high 1.0226).
In the event further buying emerges above 0.98, as the higher-timeframes suggest, a bullish scenario may occur. Conservative traders will likely look for a retest play at 0.98, preferably in the shape of a H4 bullish candlestick signal (entry and risk can be governed according to this structure).
As can be seen on the H4 timeframe, the unit came within touching distance of retesting 0.98 in the shape of a hammer formation. Traders who entered long on the back of this formation ended Thursday in healthy gains. Well done. Just north of current price, we have the first upside target in view: the 0.9877 August 23 high. Therefore, for those long this market, reducing risk to breakeven and liquidating a portion of the position is certainly an option here.
Areas of consideration:
The 0.99 handle on the H4 timeframe is likely of interest for possible shorting opportunities this morning. Its appeal stems from surrounding confluence: the underside of weekly supply at 0.9892, daily trend line resistance and H4 resistance at 0.9890. Therefore, should a H4 bearish candlestick formation emerge from 0.99 today, this, owing to the noted confluence, is considered a strong sell signal. The reason for requiring additional candlestick confirmation is simply due to the threat of price action whipsawing through 0.99 (common viewing around psychological numbers). In addition to this, a bearish candlestick provides entry and risk levels to work with.