USD/CHF Bearish Tri Breakout - 5 Signs of a Strong Bearish Break
USDCHF Bears have started the week off hot with Price having dropped 1.16% at the time of publication since Market Open. This price decline has seen a Breakout and fresh low after price has been caught in a Bearish Triangle Pattern, formed by Lower Highs into a Support Level.1) Price has been trading well Below the 200 EMA.
2) After Price makes contact of the 34 EMA Band while attempting a Breakout of the Falling Resistance of the Triangle, it is sent back down into pattern.
3) After the rejection at the Falling Resistance, we see an influx of Volume enter the Markets, ultimately leaning Bearish.
4) All the Price Action while in Pattern has happened while the RSI has been Below 50, adding Bearish Pressure.
5) Price has made a strong Bearish Candle Break so far of the Support Level of the Triangle and the currently Low of Price @ .80684 has given us a new Lower Low, breaking the Support Level Low @ .80983, suggesting Bears have taken the Support Level and will turn it Resistance.
** With all Indications combined, I believe we are looking at a True Bearish Breakout of the Triangle and will be looking for a Break & Retest Set-Up!
--> Once Price Confirms the Break and Closes, We should expect a Retest of the Break of Support between ( .80983 - .81141 ) to deliver potential Short Opportunities!
Now, Fundamentals:
Price Action lately has heavily been influenced by a couple factors:
- Federal Reserves current dilemma with deciding to not cut Interest Rates in the assumption that the Tariffs will Rise Inflation while the CPI y/y on April 10th printed a -.4% drop from 2.8% to 2.4% which could create complications later if Interest Rates are not cut soon enough.
(If Global Trade slows, that alone will Inflate prices, Tariffs (once applied) will affect as well)
- ECB has made the decision to cut Interest Rates 25 bps from 2.65% to 2.4%. This alone in-time will start the act of slowing the economy so the euro doesn't inflate too much and, in theory, will make the Euro seem less attractive for foreign investment.
This could leave investors to lean towards one of the worlds most "Safe-haven" currencies, the Swiss Franc with the Franc currently hitting a 10-Year High!
tradingview.com/news/te_news:455710:0-swiss-franc-hits-10-year-high/
Note
Here on the 4Hr Chart, the
DXY is demonstrating a very sharp decline in strength with the uncertainty of the economy and now the outrage of President Trump against the Federal Chair Powell in their actions during this times.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3QZ038:0-dollar-tumbles-as-fed-independence-under-threat-from-trump/
Note
True or False Formula has been satisfied, deeming this a Valid Breakout!
We will want to wait for:
1) Throwback to the Bearish Triangle Support-turned-Resistance
2) Bearish Volume to accumulate
Note
Potential Short-Term (Scalp) Long Set-Up
USDCHF on the 15 Min Chart has formed a Triple Candle-stick Reversal Pattern, the Morning Star right at the 34 EMA Band and Previous Resistance Level as a test.
If bulls are able to hold this level, it could serve as a good Counter-Trend Trade set-up as I suspect we will be looking for a Higher Throwback of Price to the Overhead Resistance Level @ .8114 where the Bearish Triangle sits and waits for a Retest of its Break.
-15 Min Scalp-
Long Entry @ .80795
SL @ .8061
TP @ .8114
Note
15 Min Long Scalp Set-Up TP Hit!
Price is now in prime position for Retesting the Break of the Bearish Triangle on the HTF!
Trade active
Price is now Retesting the Break of the Bearish Triangle and is currently showing Resistance @ .8114!
Short Entry @ .8112
SL @ .8141
TP @ .8041
Trade closed: stop reached
Price hit the Stop Loss after rallying back above the Resistance area! 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
For All Things Currency,
Keep It Current,
With Novi Fibonacci!
Novi's Trading Channel
t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
Keep It Current,
With Novi Fibonacci!
Novi's Trading Channel
t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.