USD/CHF: Weekly technical outlook and review.
Weekly TF.
A close above the weekly decision-point level at 0.90927 has been seen. Any sellers around this area have now very likely been stopped out, and on this timeframe the path north appears to be clear up to around the weekly supply area at 0.94546-0.93081.
Daily TF.
Price is still trading within a daily range. Daily supply is seen above at 0.91556-0.90985 and a daily S/D flip area below at 0.90372-0.90042. But, at the time of writing, price is seen pushing deeper within the aforementioned daily supply area. If we see a close above this area, there is very little to the left stopping price from reaching the daily supply area way above at 0.94546-0.93448, which is conveniently located within the weekly supply area mentioned above.
4hr TF.
Any sellers who attempted to fade the 4hr supply area at 0.91329-0.91141 have more than likely been forced to cover their positions. With the sellers consumed here, the path north is likely clear to the next fresh 4hr supply area at 0.91892-0.91668 (a pending sell order is set just below at 0.91637 - this area is not visible on the higher timeframes).
Late Friday a break above the high 0.91449 (marked with an arrow) was seen, so any lower-timeframe sellers and breakout buyers were likely stopped out by those vicious wicks/tails. What this likely did was clear the way for a move north up to the 4hr supply area at 0.91892-0.91668. With that being said we are fairly confident a small retrace in price back down to the fresh 4hr demand area at 0.91025-0.91177 (pending buy order set above at 0.91201) will be seen early this week, and then a push up to the aforementioned 4hr supply area which will make a nice take-profit target.
Pending/P.A confirmation levels:
• New pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (0.91025-0.91177) at 0.91201. The reasoning behind setting a pending buy order here is because we believe the aforementioned 4hr demand area will see a first-time reaction, which will likely rally up to at least the 4hr supply area above at 0.91892-0.91668.
• The P.A confirmation buy level (Red line) set just above the round number 0.9 at 0.90026 has been removed since price rallied too far from the entry level for the time being.
• The P.A confirmation sell level (Red line) set just below 4hr supply (0.91329-0.91141) at 0.91112 has been removed since price traded too far above the entry level.
• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below the round number 0.91 at 0.90975 has been stopped out.
• New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below 4hr supply (0.91892-0.91668) at 0.91637. The reason we have not set a P.A confirmation sell level here is simply because this level remains fresh, and likely contains unfilled sell orders meaning a first-time reaction is possibly going to be seen.
• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.91201 SL: 0.90944 TP: Dependent on how price approaches). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.91637 SL: 0.91941 TP: Dependent on how price approaches) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.
A close above the weekly decision-point level at 0.90927 has been seen. Any sellers around this area have now very likely been stopped out, and on this timeframe the path north appears to be clear up to around the weekly supply area at 0.94546-0.93081.
Daily TF.
Price is still trading within a daily range. Daily supply is seen above at 0.91556-0.90985 and a daily S/D flip area below at 0.90372-0.90042. But, at the time of writing, price is seen pushing deeper within the aforementioned daily supply area. If we see a close above this area, there is very little to the left stopping price from reaching the daily supply area way above at 0.94546-0.93448, which is conveniently located within the weekly supply area mentioned above.
4hr TF.
Any sellers who attempted to fade the 4hr supply area at 0.91329-0.91141 have more than likely been forced to cover their positions. With the sellers consumed here, the path north is likely clear to the next fresh 4hr supply area at 0.91892-0.91668 (a pending sell order is set just below at 0.91637 - this area is not visible on the higher timeframes).
Late Friday a break above the high 0.91449 (marked with an arrow) was seen, so any lower-timeframe sellers and breakout buyers were likely stopped out by those vicious wicks/tails. What this likely did was clear the way for a move north up to the 4hr supply area at 0.91892-0.91668. With that being said we are fairly confident a small retrace in price back down to the fresh 4hr demand area at 0.91025-0.91177 (pending buy order set above at 0.91201) will be seen early this week, and then a push up to the aforementioned 4hr supply area which will make a nice take-profit target.
Pending/P.A confirmation levels:
• New pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (0.91025-0.91177) at 0.91201. The reasoning behind setting a pending buy order here is because we believe the aforementioned 4hr demand area will see a first-time reaction, which will likely rally up to at least the 4hr supply area above at 0.91892-0.91668.
• The P.A confirmation buy level (Red line) set just above the round number 0.9 at 0.90026 has been removed since price rallied too far from the entry level for the time being.
• The P.A confirmation sell level (Red line) set just below 4hr supply (0.91329-0.91141) at 0.91112 has been removed since price traded too far above the entry level.
• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below the round number 0.91 at 0.90975 has been stopped out.
• New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below 4hr supply (0.91892-0.91668) at 0.91637. The reason we have not set a P.A confirmation sell level here is simply because this level remains fresh, and likely contains unfilled sell orders meaning a first-time reaction is possibly going to be seen.
• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.91201 SL: 0.90944 TP: Dependent on how price approaches). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.91637 SL: 0.91941 TP: Dependent on how price approaches) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.
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