USD CHF - Holding shorts - trade update
Updated
Hello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Daily Chart
The Daily is reacting to a highly pivotal level.
Based on probability, the high chance of this rejecting is clear.
Daily chart updated
Refer to previous idea for more information
Refer to the 8-hour chart to the rising wedge pattern formation which is key to understand where price will look to 'tail off' at the imbalance, where a change of hands will occur.
The Weekly chart shows us two things to focus on here.
Chart 1 - shows the clear lower lows being made since the high [labelled 1] - April 2019.
Since here, price has shown critical resistance low formations taken on 16th March 2020. Price then travelled and retested the latest imbalance - placed on a deep correctional swing at the 70.5% & 61.8% Fibonacci, but this confirms the imbalance zone. [Refer to chart II]. The Failure to close above this zone - shows the next entry position as the swing high and swing low has completed the imbalance zones. Now using a sell approach risk probable scenario, the defined profit taking points are shown on the chart structure.
Chart 2 - The chart here highlights a clear lower low formation where price reacts with a new imbalance - forming lower imbalances, as well as structure Fibonacci reactive zones, providing key probabilities to continue selling.
The main draw here for the latest week close here though offers, the imbalance netting.
Price here had closed out with buyers reaching the anticipated 'Range' high of the week, but in reality it is a Fibonacci reactive imbalance, emphasizing a further anticipated reactive sell.
4Hour chart
provides clear entry positions
Based upon the rejection of the daily, the imbalance has been tested, but to confirm a true sell using the rising wedge formation allows entry upon a pull-back to accumulate further orders
and a break of structure re-active sell.
This is denoted on the chart with the two positions in view.
Following the SPX model as a basis for why USD CHF is creating further lows.
DXY - Daily chart assists with further selling pressure.
Note, this will be tested on a higher timeframe, with bullish structure. - Revert to the SPX analysis for further description.
Link to idea:
Previous idea
SPX VS VIX
Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index.
Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors.
Refer to the DXY chart to follow the imbalance.
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Remember to follow risk management and ensure partials are taken to sustain account compounding
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
- Red = Three Month
- Blue = Monthly
- Purple = weekly
- Scarlet [Red] - Four day
- Orange = Daily
- Green = 8 Hour, 16hour
- Grey = 4hour
- Pink = 1 hour
Daily Chart
The Daily is reacting to a highly pivotal level.
Based on probability, the high chance of this rejecting is clear.
Daily chart updated
Refer to previous idea for more information
Refer to the 8-hour chart to the rising wedge pattern formation which is key to understand where price will look to 'tail off' at the imbalance, where a change of hands will occur.
The Weekly chart shows us two things to focus on here.
Chart 1 - shows the clear lower lows being made since the high [labelled 1] - April 2019.
Since here, price has shown critical resistance low formations taken on 16th March 2020. Price then travelled and retested the latest imbalance - placed on a deep correctional swing at the 70.5% & 61.8% Fibonacci, but this confirms the imbalance zone. [Refer to chart II]. The Failure to close above this zone - shows the next entry position as the swing high and swing low has completed the imbalance zones. Now using a sell approach risk probable scenario, the defined profit taking points are shown on the chart structure.
Chart 2 - The chart here highlights a clear lower low formation where price reacts with a new imbalance - forming lower imbalances, as well as structure Fibonacci reactive zones, providing key probabilities to continue selling.
The main draw here for the latest week close here though offers, the imbalance netting.
Price here had closed out with buyers reaching the anticipated 'Range' high of the week, but in reality it is a Fibonacci reactive imbalance, emphasizing a further anticipated reactive sell.
4Hour chart
provides clear entry positions
Based upon the rejection of the daily, the imbalance has been tested, but to confirm a true sell using the rising wedge formation allows entry upon a pull-back to accumulate further orders
and a break of structure re-active sell.
This is denoted on the chart with the two positions in view.
Following the SPX model as a basis for why USD CHF is creating further lows.
DXY - Daily chart assists with further selling pressure.
Note, this will be tested on a higher timeframe, with bullish structure. - Revert to the SPX analysis for further description.
Link to idea:
Previous idea
SPX VS VIX
Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index.
Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors.
Refer to the DXY chart to follow the imbalance.
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Remember to follow risk management and ensure partials are taken to sustain account compounding
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
Trade closed: target reached
-0.618 reached
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.