USD / CHF – ANALYSIS OF THE BIG PICTURE
Updated
My analysis today deals with how the further course of our most popular forex pair "USD / CHF" could look.
> The technical analysis and selected indicators, confirm the thesis of an imminent rise.
= Why, that I explain after the introduction.
The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on USD / CHF, as the whole economy depends on its behavior, and it directly competes in composition.
> Meanwhile, this seems to take a run-up, for a final upswing, which could put the currency pair under massive selling pressure.
> Regardless of these selling pressures coming from the USD, USD / CHF has arrived at a very strong support, which suggests a rising price.
In the following, the analysis goes into detail, so that the significant levels and areas are known to you.
For this purpose, I have performed a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible.
Normally all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing.
> We traders know that no one can predict the future, and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations.
> If the DXY should rise again, that means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets.
> This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture.
> Which levels are RELEVANT, I have explained in detail in the following pages.
Table of contents
1st part = INTRODUCTION
2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
= Monthly - Time frame
= Weekly - Time frame
3rd part = CONCLUSION
PART ONE
"INTRODUCTION"
After "USD/CHF" formed a top at USD 1.015 in October|2022, a sharp sell-off has been unleashed thereafter.
> This sell-off continued until the beginning of February, where we encountered serious support for the first time.
> The sell-off was fueled by its base currency, the USD, which also experienced a sell-off.
> Since the USD, showed signs of a possible bottom, this was reflected in the pair under consideration.
> In recent weeks, we have seen an increasingly weaker sell-off, which I believe suggests a rise.
= We have worked off the HTF Fibonacci - 0.786 - and saw a strong reaction.
= The volume profile of the last 2-years, supports the current bottom with a strong area.
= The "DAILY" - MACD + RSI - both show divergences, which further strengthens the rise thesis.
> Once you look at the DXY (USD index) at the higher time levels, the further sell-off in the traditional markets becomes even more likely.
(My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes).
SECOND PART
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle.
> MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level
These are divided into
> SUMMARY > CHARTS
The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way.
(This also refers to Fibonacci levels.)
1st MONTH – Time frame
SUMMARY
The trend channel shown in the chart, in turquoise, was formed since 1985 and has been able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel since then. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market.
> The share price is at the decade-old resistance line and had challenged it over the past months.
The trend channel shown in the chart, in earth color, formed since 2008 and directed the sideways movement that has existed since then.
> The price is between the middle and support line of the channel.
The trend lines shown in the chart, in purple, formed in the 80s and turned out to be excellent resistance or support areas.
> The price bounced the last time in 2015, which was reflected in an extreme reaction.
The trend lines drawn in the chart, in earth color, formed in the 90s and turned out to be excellent resistance or support areas.
> The price bounced the last time in 2018, which was reflected in an extreme reaction.
If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at four "DEMAND" + "SUPPLY" zones on the chart.
> The "DEMAND" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a Strong movement.
> The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement.
> The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a strong movement.
> The "SUPPLY" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement.
The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been taken into account in past movements (last decades).
> FIB 1 | will serve as a very strong resistance should the price attempt another run up.
> FIB 2 | are the possible targets that come into play in the event of a further sell-off. (LIGHTLY weighted)
> FIB 3 | are the possible targets that come into play on another sell-off. (MEDIUM weighted)
> FIB 4 | are the possible targets that come into play in the event of a further sell-off. (STRONG weighted)
Some levels of interest are in front of us, which in the last months + years, played a strong role for the market.
> The currently most relevant - POIs are | 0.90 & 0.95 | already represented an important brand since the year 2011 and thus currently take a very strong role.
> The other POIs are by no means to be neglected and will play a role for the price development in the coming days, weeks and months. (Therefore, take your time and transfer the ones that are relevant for you into your chart).
OVERVIEW
CURRENTLY RELEVANT
CHARTS
Overall picture without POIs + without FIBONACCI
Overall picture without POIs
Overall picture without FIBONACCI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements..
2nd WEEK – Time frame
SUMMARY
Besides the already mentioned trend channels + trend lines, others become visible.
> These have caused reactions in the chart in the past and should therefore be kept in mind.
The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements.
> The "DEMAND" zone 1, is MEDIUM STRONG = followed a Strong movement + combination with Monthly "DEMAND" zone 1.
> The "SUPPLY" zones 1, is WEAK = followed a weak movement.
> The "SUPPLY" zones 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement + combination with Monthly "SUPPLY" zone 1.
As further Fibonacci additions, we have two more elements:
> Both newly drawn elements can be combined with the previously mentioned elements.
Lastly, I would like to draw your attention to the "MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK":
> These represent relevant resistance areas and reinforce the "TARGET ZONE 1".
CHARTS
Overall picture
Overall picture without FIBONACCI
Overall picture with TARGET ZONES
THIRD PART
CONCLUSION
"The market is always right."
As far as forecasts and analyses are concerned, everyone gives free rein to their opinion.
> Depending on the analyst's past success, he or she is believed to a greater or lesser extent, but only one can always be right.
In summary, based on technical analysis, there are strong reasons for a rising USD/CHF rate.
> Since the price top in October|2022 - the monthly candles have been dominated by bearish.
> A possible break of the support elements is not impossible, but rather unlikely.
> The divergences in the daily RSI + MACD, suggest a bullish movement.
For this reason, I expect a strong USD/CHF exchange rate and a strong USD and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = LONG.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you and happy trading!
ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
> The technical analysis and selected indicators, confirm the thesis of an imminent rise.
= Why, that I explain after the introduction.
The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on USD / CHF, as the whole economy depends on its behavior, and it directly competes in composition.
> Meanwhile, this seems to take a run-up, for a final upswing, which could put the currency pair under massive selling pressure.
> Regardless of these selling pressures coming from the USD, USD / CHF has arrived at a very strong support, which suggests a rising price.
In the following, the analysis goes into detail, so that the significant levels and areas are known to you.
For this purpose, I have performed a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible.
Normally all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing.
> We traders know that no one can predict the future, and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations.
> If the DXY should rise again, that means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets.
> This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture.
> Which levels are RELEVANT, I have explained in detail in the following pages.
Table of contents
1st part = INTRODUCTION
2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
= Monthly - Time frame
= Weekly - Time frame
3rd part = CONCLUSION
PART ONE
"INTRODUCTION"
After "USD/CHF" formed a top at USD 1.015 in October|2022, a sharp sell-off has been unleashed thereafter.
> This sell-off continued until the beginning of February, where we encountered serious support for the first time.
> The sell-off was fueled by its base currency, the USD, which also experienced a sell-off.
> Since the USD, showed signs of a possible bottom, this was reflected in the pair under consideration.
> In recent weeks, we have seen an increasingly weaker sell-off, which I believe suggests a rise.
= We have worked off the HTF Fibonacci - 0.786 - and saw a strong reaction.
= The volume profile of the last 2-years, supports the current bottom with a strong area.
= The "DAILY" - MACD + RSI - both show divergences, which further strengthens the rise thesis.
> Once you look at the DXY (USD index) at the higher time levels, the further sell-off in the traditional markets becomes even more likely.
(My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes).
SECOND PART
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle.
> MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level
These are divided into
> SUMMARY > CHARTS
The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way.
(This also refers to Fibonacci levels.)
1st MONTH – Time frame
SUMMARY
The trend channel shown in the chart, in turquoise, was formed since 1985 and has been able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel since then. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market.
> The share price is at the decade-old resistance line and had challenged it over the past months.
The trend channel shown in the chart, in earth color, formed since 2008 and directed the sideways movement that has existed since then.
> The price is between the middle and support line of the channel.
The trend lines shown in the chart, in purple, formed in the 80s and turned out to be excellent resistance or support areas.
> The price bounced the last time in 2015, which was reflected in an extreme reaction.
The trend lines drawn in the chart, in earth color, formed in the 90s and turned out to be excellent resistance or support areas.
> The price bounced the last time in 2018, which was reflected in an extreme reaction.
If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at four "DEMAND" + "SUPPLY" zones on the chart.
> The "DEMAND" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a Strong movement.
> The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement.
> The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a strong movement.
> The "SUPPLY" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement.
The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been taken into account in past movements (last decades).
> FIB 1 | will serve as a very strong resistance should the price attempt another run up.
> FIB 2 | are the possible targets that come into play in the event of a further sell-off. (LIGHTLY weighted)
> FIB 3 | are the possible targets that come into play on another sell-off. (MEDIUM weighted)
> FIB 4 | are the possible targets that come into play in the event of a further sell-off. (STRONG weighted)
Some levels of interest are in front of us, which in the last months + years, played a strong role for the market.
> The currently most relevant - POIs are | 0.90 & 0.95 | already represented an important brand since the year 2011 and thus currently take a very strong role.
> The other POIs are by no means to be neglected and will play a role for the price development in the coming days, weeks and months. (Therefore, take your time and transfer the ones that are relevant for you into your chart).
OVERVIEW
CURRENTLY RELEVANT
CHARTS
Overall picture without POIs + without FIBONACCI
Overall picture without POIs
Overall picture without FIBONACCI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements..
2nd WEEK – Time frame
SUMMARY
Besides the already mentioned trend channels + trend lines, others become visible.
> These have caused reactions in the chart in the past and should therefore be kept in mind.
The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements.
> The "DEMAND" zone 1, is MEDIUM STRONG = followed a Strong movement + combination with Monthly "DEMAND" zone 1.
> The "SUPPLY" zones 1, is WEAK = followed a weak movement.
> The "SUPPLY" zones 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement + combination with Monthly "SUPPLY" zone 1.
As further Fibonacci additions, we have two more elements:
> Both newly drawn elements can be combined with the previously mentioned elements.
Lastly, I would like to draw your attention to the "MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK":
> These represent relevant resistance areas and reinforce the "TARGET ZONE 1".
CHARTS
Overall picture
Overall picture without FIBONACCI
Overall picture with TARGET ZONES
THIRD PART
CONCLUSION
"The market is always right."
As far as forecasts and analyses are concerned, everyone gives free rein to their opinion.
> Depending on the analyst's past success, he or she is believed to a greater or lesser extent, but only one can always be right.
In summary, based on technical analysis, there are strong reasons for a rising USD/CHF rate.
> Since the price top in October|2022 - the monthly candles have been dominated by bearish.
> A possible break of the support elements is not impossible, but rather unlikely.
> The divergences in the daily RSI + MACD, suggest a bullish movement.
For this reason, I expect a strong USD/CHF exchange rate and a strong USD and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = LONG.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you and happy trading!
ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
Note
TARGET ZONE 1 - was successfully reached and worked off, as well as predicted in the analysis.Some elements stand in the way of a further rise, which is why this is unlikely for the time being.
> In the intra-day time frame, a divergence has formed on the indicators, which additionally supports a correction thesis.
Note
In the last UPDATE, it was highlighted that the "TARGET ZONE 1" has been processed. - It was mentioned that an ab-sale is highly probable.
This ab-sale has occurred, is just at a decision point, regarding its further behavior.
SCENARIOS
1. We find a bottom and the price rises (Strong USD) to the TARGET ZONE 2
2. We break the old low and experience a continued down-sale to 0.89000 - 0.87500
STRONG SUPPORT = FIB (0.88s) + DEMAND ZONE (W1) + DEMAND ZONE (M1)
The decision to proceed will depend on the performance of the DXY.
Trade closed: target reached
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