USDCHF: The US dollar rose on unemployment claims data, mixed
Updated
The USD DXY index rose 0.30% to 103.90 as recent economic data and the Federal Reserve's minutes presented a complex scenario for investors to navigate. The increase came after the number of initial jobless claims was announced at 209,000, lower than expected. Despite this positive sign, investors are also considering a sharp decline in durable goods orders in October, down 5.4%.
The latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show persistent concerns about inflation, suggesting that these concerns will influence future policy decisions. This led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields across a range of maturities as investors digested mixed economic data. Looking ahead, market participants do not expect an interest rate hike in November. Instead, there are speculations that interest rates could be cut as early as March or May next year. This sentiment is reflected in the DXY technical analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained unchanged near oversold conditions, which could indicate a resurgence of buying pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bar is still moving sideways in the red zone, indicating near-term bearish momentum.
Despite these mixed signals, the USD remains below the 20-day and 100-day SMAs (simple moving averages), but remains above the key 200-day SMA support. This position suggests that long-term bullish sentiment against the dollar may still exist despite the current bearish trend.
The dollar continues to assert its dominance in global finance, playing a central role in foreign exchange markets with a daily trading volume of more than $6.6 trillion, based on last year's data. This dominance highlights the currency's far-reaching influence and its resilience in the face of economic instability and changes in monetary policy.
The latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show persistent concerns about inflation, suggesting that these concerns will influence future policy decisions. This led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields across a range of maturities as investors digested mixed economic data. Looking ahead, market participants do not expect an interest rate hike in November. Instead, there are speculations that interest rates could be cut as early as March or May next year. This sentiment is reflected in the DXY technical analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained unchanged near oversold conditions, which could indicate a resurgence of buying pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bar is still moving sideways in the red zone, indicating near-term bearish momentum.
Despite these mixed signals, the USD remains below the 20-day and 100-day SMAs (simple moving averages), but remains above the key 200-day SMA support. This position suggests that long-term bullish sentiment against the dollar may still exist despite the current bearish trend.
The dollar continues to assert its dominance in global finance, playing a central role in foreign exchange markets with a daily trading volume of more than $6.6 trillion, based on last year's data. This dominance highlights the currency's far-reaching influence and its resilience in the face of economic instability and changes in monetary policy.
Note
Ceasefire in Gaza begins on Friday Qatar announced that a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip would begin at 7 a.m. Friday.
Qatar has received a list of civilians to be released from Gaza.
A Qatari spokesperson expressed hope that the ceasefire agreement would eventually lead to a permanent ceasefire.
Note
The Swiss Franc fell during today's Asian hours, with USD/CHF trading at 0.8830. The move comes after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced it had reduced its foreign exchange reserves to CHF657 billion, the lowest level in seven years, well below last year's peak of CHF950 billion. . . The decline reflected the central bank's efforts to wind down operations, which traders had been watching closely. The broader market is also digesting various economic data from the United States. Yesterday's US Consumer Confidence Index caused a positive surprise, coming in at 61.3, slightly above the expected 60.5. However, this was offset by a sharper-than-expected decline in durable goods orders, which fell 5.4%, more than expected for a more modest decline.
Additionally, U.S. unemployment claims fell more than expected to 209,000 from 233,000 the previous week. The numbers have raised traders' concerns about continued inflation and the possibility of an economic slowdown that could lead to more aggressive tightening measures by the Federal Reserve.
As investors and analysts look to the future, they wait for the next economic data to gauge market direction. Next Friday, all eyes will be on Switzerland's third-quarter labor market data and the US' S&P Global PMI report for further insight into the health of the economy and the potential for market volatility in the coming weeks. Dew. future. These data points are expected to provide fresh impetus for traders as they assess the current economic backdrop and central bank policies.
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