USDCHF - A Godsend
Updated
In addition to my longer-term swing trade (if not already a position trade) in the form of a USDCHF long with a profit target of +760 pips, seen here
I am also entering a "shorter-term" USDCHF long trade here at 0.83600, with a target of 0.87100.
Thus a good +340 pips would be possible here.
The probability that the weakness of the USDCHF will also come to an end by the end of the year tomorrow at the latest is exorbitantly high and the CRV at these levels is more palatable than ever.
Otherwise, the fundamental reasons remain the same as in the longer-term trade above.
-> The SNB will no longer be happy with the current levels of the CHF as soon as it returns from its skiing holiday in the Swiss Alps.
I am also entering a "shorter-term" USDCHF long trade here at 0.83600, with a target of 0.87100.
Thus a good +340 pips would be possible here.
The probability that the weakness of the USDCHF will also come to an end by the end of the year tomorrow at the latest is exorbitantly high and the CRV at these levels is more palatable than ever.
Otherwise, the fundamental reasons remain the same as in the longer-term trade above.
-> The SNB will no longer be happy with the current levels of the CHF as soon as it returns from its skiing holiday in the Swiss Alps.
Note
🟢The trade is off to a great start -> nearly 140 Pips in Profit after 2 days of trading✅️ 🟢 -> 1/3 of the move done, so I expect the trade will hit the target in the coming weeks, probably in January✅️
📊🇨🇭This week we got the Swiss CPI which could bring some volatility into the market
📊🇨🇭Inflation data out of Switzerland over the next two months:
-> It will rise slightly, as the higher electricity prices are now having an bigger effect and also rental prices, which are adjusted once a year in Switzerland, will also contribute to an increase.
Note
🟢We reached the +200 Pips on the high this week so this trade keeps being a lot of fun🟢📊🇺🇲To continue this much fun two things have to be strong today:
1. NFPs
2. ISM Services
If these both beat consensus forecasts we will see USDCHF at 0.87 by early next week✅️
Note
🇨🇭📊As forecasted the Swiss CPI saw a rise towards 1.7%.📊🔮And as I said the next month will see a rise again this time to 2% or maybe even slightly above🔮📊
-> BUT: This rise will be temporary so the SNB won't act on it.
🏛🇨🇭I see the SNB cutting rates in June 24🟢
📊🇺🇲US Data was more mixed, with the NFPs stronger but the ISM weaker.
-> The trade will take some more time, the US CPI data tomorrow will decide how fast we will hit the target✅️
Note
📊🇺🇲 Both the US CPI (inflation data) and the jobless claims surprised positively today🟢 -> This is excellent for my USDCHF long in the long term and it should sustainably break the resistance at 0.855 as early as next week ✅️
🟢-> after a short breather in the 0.86 region, nothing stands in the way of the 0.871 target ✅️
Note
🟢This USDCHF long is and remains my absolute favourite darling!🟢📊🇺🇲Helped by strong US Data yesterday AND a dovish SNB it just knows one way (yes exactly the one from the favourite PIXAR movie) : UP!
As if pulled by a string (or rather like the arrow I drew ;) it is running straight towards my take profit and should reach it soon✅️
A profit of +340 pips in 3 weeks would be tastier than a BicMac for me, I'M lovin it!✅️
Trade closed: target reached
✅️Take Profit reached: +340 pips ✅️🟢A very nice and simple trade🟢
-> Trades like this are the most fun and tastes better than any Big Tasty!
-> I love it✅️
Here are the bare numbers:
🟢Profit: 340 Pips✅️
🟢Duration of the trade: 3 weeks ✅️
🟢Time in drawdown: 0✅️
🟢Pips in drawdown: 0✅️
🟢Check out my other USDCHF trade (also in profit) for a longer-term profit target!
Note
This week we are facing the🏛🇨🇭 interest rate decision by the SNB and the
🏛🇺🇲 meeting of the US FED -> both are extremely important data points for the USDCHF.
🏛🇨🇭 The market is expecting the SNB to cut interest rates with a probability of 40%, which, if it actually materialises, would give the USDCHF a decent boost 🟢
🇨🇭🔮 But even if they didn't cut rates, this wouldn't be a long-term disaster for the USDCHF because, as I predicted 4 months ago, the SNB will cut rates in June at the latest ✅️
Quote 13 December 2023: "- My forecast: 1st interest rate cut by the SNB in summer 2024 (March or June)"
Note
🏛🇨🇭 And the SNB was actually the first of the G8 central banks to cut interest rates back in March-> the CHF got a good beating💥💥💥 (as expected)
-> i'm waiting for pullbacks in the USDCHF to buy it again✅️
-> 🔮my prophecy from December last year came true🔮
! 🔮But that's not all folks🔮 !
-> 🏛🇨🇭Ich expect the SNB to cut interest rates again in June🔮
-> the CHF train will continue its downwards journey✅️
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