For those who read Wednesday’s briefing you may recall the report highlighted daily resistance at 0.9986 as a possible sell zone (check out its recent history holding price action lower [yellow points] – it’s impressive), with conservative stop-loss orders placed above the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0029 on the weekly timeframe (this helps clear any fakeout play around 1.0000 on the H4, which, as most are already aware, is common viewing around psychological numbers). Also worth noting is the daily resistance is seen positioned two pips above the top edge of weekly supply at 0.9984-0.9894.
As you can see, price connected with 0.9986 yesterday and is thus far holding price action lower, eyeing a possible test of the 0.9950 support on the H4 timeframe.
As per Wednesday’s report, the first area of concern is 0.9950, therefore, those who are short will want to keep eyes on this level today for signs of bullish intent. A break of this level, on the other hand, will likely bring the unit towards the 0.99 handle, surrounded by two monthly opening levels from July (0.9899) and August (0.9903).
Areas of consideration:
Aside from selling 0.9986, a break of 0.9950, as we already know, likely clears the path south towards the 0.99 handle on the H4 timeframe. An intraday sell on the break/retest (preferably in the shape of a bearish candlestick formation – entry/stop levels can be defined by the selected candle structure) of 0.9950 is, therefore, an option.
Today’s data points: US durable goods orders m/m; FOMC member’s Clarida and Mester speak.
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