USDCHF analysis toolset
Updated
USDCHF ('UC') looks like it's having a case of history repeating itself, as marked on the chart with the date ranges of which 37 days have passed of the total of 75. The remainder 38 days I expect 'UC' to go into a downtrend approximately like ghost bar pattern on the chart.
In that period 'UC' will make, as part of USDJPY (UJ) drop seasonality, a decent over a period of 7 weeks or more. With no further delay it could do it like it did before in November '17 over a period of 7 weeks.
In that same period JPY is expected to range and reverse direction while CHF and USD having their cycles of up and down trends. The effects on 'UC' are somewhat predictable by looking at 'CJ' and UJ knowing that the price of 'CU' is the product of the price of 'CJ' and 'UC', and the magnitude of change is equal to the sum of the change on 'UC' and 'CJ'.
'CU' ='CJ' x UJ
dCU = dCJ + dUJ
In the downtrend of 'UC' you will notice some consolidation at support levels and then you'll see it break through. What in my honest opinion actually happens at these levels is that other triangle members are limiting this pair from further change caused by the balance of strength between the triangle currencies, and their respective membership with other triangles.
So I assume that the support levels of 'UC' in the next 7 weeks are the price variations of USD, CHF and JPY, and I have therefore added the performance charts of the three below to compare. Each performance chart is simply the average change of the currency against its basket, which are for USD the majors and for CHF and JPY their respective crosses.
Hopefully this toolset helps with the analysis of your trades. As it is somewhat experimental, feedback will be much appreciated.
Thanks for reading,
Arnaud
In that period 'UC' will make, as part of USDJPY (UJ) drop seasonality, a decent over a period of 7 weeks or more. With no further delay it could do it like it did before in November '17 over a period of 7 weeks.
In that same period JPY is expected to range and reverse direction while CHF and USD having their cycles of up and down trends. The effects on 'UC' are somewhat predictable by looking at 'CJ' and UJ knowing that the price of 'CU' is the product of the price of 'CJ' and 'UC', and the magnitude of change is equal to the sum of the change on 'UC' and 'CJ'.
'CU' ='CJ' x UJ
dCU = dCJ + dUJ
In the downtrend of 'UC' you will notice some consolidation at support levels and then you'll see it break through. What in my honest opinion actually happens at these levels is that other triangle members are limiting this pair from further change caused by the balance of strength between the triangle currencies, and their respective membership with other triangles.
So I assume that the support levels of 'UC' in the next 7 weeks are the price variations of USD, CHF and JPY, and I have therefore added the performance charts of the three below to compare. Each performance chart is simply the average change of the currency against its basket, which are for USD the majors and for CHF and JPY their respective crosses.
Hopefully this toolset helps with the analysis of your trades. As it is somewhat experimental, feedback will be much appreciated.
Thanks for reading,
Arnaud
Trade active
Once current CAD crash event is processed by the market I expect the fall of UJ and USDCHF to take more serious steps. Here's the direct link to my analysis which looks better than the imported one above and is also updated.tradingview.com/chart/y67Vi1Tb
Note
Correction on CAD crash, changed my view on that to be the USD crash previously predicted.After CAD news came out recently I watched CAD seeking stability by sequentially trying to fix the rate on each CAD cross pair and it didn't seem to hold any and then started and slow descent in an ever increasing angle downwards. It would also answer the question if and how UC would complete the C&H pattern, therefore I concluded that CAD was going to crash.
Now I developed a different view, also because the CAD crash never happened, that it will be USD that crashes like I predicted initially. USD may take down all majors for bit up to quite a length caused by the USD major pair relationships. That explains multiple monthly cup and handle pattern acros major currency pairs.
Note
Updated tradingview.com/chart/y67Vi1Tb and added moving averages so that the individual asset prices are easier to follow.
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