Wave analysis on USDCHF
Chart Analysis
H1 Chart:
• Elliot Wave:
• The chart indicates the formation of waves within the Elliot Wave structure. We see the completion of waves (i) and (ii) with an ongoing development of wave iii.
• Wave (ii) correction appears to have completed, implying the start of wave iii downwards.
• Potential target for wave iii could be the 50% Fibonacci level around 0.8800.
• MACD:
• The MACD shows a bearish momentum with the histogram moving into the negative territory and the MACD line crossing below the signal line.
• RSI:
• The RSI is around 38.47, indicating a bearish momentum but not yet in the oversold territory.
H4 Chart:
• Elliot Wave:
• The H4 chart presents a broader perspective with the ongoing formation of the third wave (iii) of a larger degree.
• After wave (ii), there is an apparent ABC correction with wave (c) completing just below 0.90506 (76.0% Fibonacci level).
• Currently, the formation of wave (i) is ongoing, indicating further downward movement after minor corrections.
• MACD:
• The MACD indicates strong bearish momentum with the histogram in deep negative and MACD line significantly below the signal line.
• RSI:
• The RSI is at 25.94, suggesting an oversold condition which may precede a minor upward correction before the continuation of the downtrend.
Daily Chart:
• Elliot Wave:
• The daily chart indicates a larger degree wave 1 down is completed, and wave 2 is an ongoing correction.
• After the completion of wave 2, wave 3 of the higher degree downtrend appears to be forming.
• This wave structure suggests a long-term bearish outlook with key levels around 0.85466 (23.6% Fibonacci level) and potentially lower towards 0.83251.
• MACD:
• The MACD line is well below the signal line, confirming the bearish trend continuation on a daily scale.
• RSI:
• The RSI on the daily chart is at 34.09, indicating that while the pair is bearish, it is approaching oversold levels, suggesting possible minor corrections.
Summary and Implications:
1. Short-Term (H1): The bearish momentum is likely to continue with potential corrections towards 0.88490 (wave iv) before further drops.
2. Medium-Term (H4): The broader wave (iii) is developing, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend after minor corrections. Watching for breaks below 0.8800.
3. Long-Term (Daily): The long-term outlook remains bearish with the development of wave 3, indicating substantial downward movement towards 0.85466 and potentially lower.
Trading Strategy:
• Short Positions: Favorable at the completion of minor corrections, particularly around 0.88490 and 0.89770 (61.8% Fibonacci on H4).
• Risk Management: Use tight stop losses above recent highs, considering the volatility and oversold RSI conditions which may lead to short-term pullbacks.
• Profit Targets: Set targets around key Fibonacci levels, such as 0.8800, 0.85466, and potentially 0.83251 for long-term trades.
This analysis highlights a predominantly bearish outlook for USDCHF with opportunities for both short and long-term trades based on Elliot Wave patterns, MACD, and RSI indicators.
H1 Chart:
• Elliot Wave:
• The chart indicates the formation of waves within the Elliot Wave structure. We see the completion of waves (i) and (ii) with an ongoing development of wave iii.
• Wave (ii) correction appears to have completed, implying the start of wave iii downwards.
• Potential target for wave iii could be the 50% Fibonacci level around 0.8800.
• MACD:
• The MACD shows a bearish momentum with the histogram moving into the negative territory and the MACD line crossing below the signal line.
• RSI:
• The RSI is around 38.47, indicating a bearish momentum but not yet in the oversold territory.
H4 Chart:
• Elliot Wave:
• The H4 chart presents a broader perspective with the ongoing formation of the third wave (iii) of a larger degree.
• After wave (ii), there is an apparent ABC correction with wave (c) completing just below 0.90506 (76.0% Fibonacci level).
• Currently, the formation of wave (i) is ongoing, indicating further downward movement after minor corrections.
• MACD:
• The MACD indicates strong bearish momentum with the histogram in deep negative and MACD line significantly below the signal line.
• RSI:
• The RSI is at 25.94, suggesting an oversold condition which may precede a minor upward correction before the continuation of the downtrend.
Daily Chart:
• Elliot Wave:
• The daily chart indicates a larger degree wave 1 down is completed, and wave 2 is an ongoing correction.
• After the completion of wave 2, wave 3 of the higher degree downtrend appears to be forming.
• This wave structure suggests a long-term bearish outlook with key levels around 0.85466 (23.6% Fibonacci level) and potentially lower towards 0.83251.
• MACD:
• The MACD line is well below the signal line, confirming the bearish trend continuation on a daily scale.
• RSI:
• The RSI on the daily chart is at 34.09, indicating that while the pair is bearish, it is approaching oversold levels, suggesting possible minor corrections.
Summary and Implications:
1. Short-Term (H1): The bearish momentum is likely to continue with potential corrections towards 0.88490 (wave iv) before further drops.
2. Medium-Term (H4): The broader wave (iii) is developing, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend after minor corrections. Watching for breaks below 0.8800.
3. Long-Term (Daily): The long-term outlook remains bearish with the development of wave 3, indicating substantial downward movement towards 0.85466 and potentially lower.
Trading Strategy:
• Short Positions: Favorable at the completion of minor corrections, particularly around 0.88490 and 0.89770 (61.8% Fibonacci on H4).
• Risk Management: Use tight stop losses above recent highs, considering the volatility and oversold RSI conditions which may lead to short-term pullbacks.
• Profit Targets: Set targets around key Fibonacci levels, such as 0.8800, 0.85466, and potentially 0.83251 for long-term trades.
This analysis highlights a predominantly bearish outlook for USDCHF with opportunities for both short and long-term trades based on Elliot Wave patterns, MACD, and RSI indicators.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.