China Might Be Forced To Devaluate The Yuan Unexpectedly
Updated
China is fighting now for 18 month to stop it´s captial outflows.
Chinas Currceny Reserves droped down to less than 3.000 Billion US-Dollar, offically. Probably it´s far more down as China is reporting every month.
China can not control it´s capital outflows. China is a dictatorship. China will add more pressure to stop US-Dollar leaving the country. But: Finally this will cause a situation like the Black Wednesday 1992 (devaluation of GDP). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday
Even all global stockmarkes right now on a strong up move traders need to mention the alarmsignals as well. If ever China is forced again to devaluate the Yuan again it will come unexpectedly and will at least cause a sharp sell off at any stockmarket globally. If you follow the trading ideas here start now to protect any longposition with out of the money put options or any other hedge.
Chinas Currceny Reserves droped down to less than 3.000 Billion US-Dollar, offically. Probably it´s far more down as China is reporting every month.
China can not control it´s capital outflows. China is a dictatorship. China will add more pressure to stop US-Dollar leaving the country. But: Finally this will cause a situation like the Black Wednesday 1992 (devaluation of GDP). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday
Even all global stockmarkes right now on a strong up move traders need to mention the alarmsignals as well. If ever China is forced again to devaluate the Yuan again it will come unexpectedly and will at least cause a sharp sell off at any stockmarket globally. If you follow the trading ideas here start now to protect any longposition with out of the money put options or any other hedge.
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FEB 22 2017 Quote: Treasury Sell-Off Is a China SyndromeAnd China has been funneling billions of dollars into its economy to keep it chugging along despite an increasing number of cracks in its credit system and to prevent its currency from depreciating too quickly. Despite all its efforts to prevent money from leaving the nation, capital outflows are continuing.
On the Outs
China's monthly capital outflows have been growing
Source: bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-02-13/trump-may-be-unnerving-but-it-s-china-moving-treasuries
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FEB 23 2017: USDBTC right now was up 5 % or almost 60 USD breaking above the former high before China´s intervention at January 4th and 5th 2017. invst.ly/3bxy4Note
MAR 01 2017: Bitcoin and USDCNH sending next alarm signal. Any US rate hike could trigger a further divaluation of Chinas Currency.Note
MAR 02 2017: Bitcoin and USDCNH sending another alarm signal today. Until now China successfully stopped faster devaluation of the Renminbi. Further unmoves in globally stockmarkets will continue as long ass China can control its currency.Note
MAR 03 2017 Fed's Yellen: March rate hike 'appropriate' if data holds upEconomy9 minutes ago (Mar 03, 2017 01:20PM ET)
investing.com/news/economy-news/fed's-yellen:-march-rate-hike-'appropriate'-if-data-holds-up-463713
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MAR 04 2017: Yuan, rupee outlook sours on Fed interest rate hike bets: Reuters pollQuote: The Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee are expected to weaken, although less than previously thought, reversing recent gains as rising chances of a U.S. interest rate hike this month boost the dollar, a Reuters poll found.Since the start of the year, most Asian currencies have risen against the dollar, as uncertainty about President Donald Trump's economic policies hurt the greenback.Fed officials over the past few days suggested that rates need to go up sooner rather than later to avoid falling behind the curve on inflation in the face of proposed economic stimulus from Trump's administration.
The view for a weaker yuan also stands alongside Trump's accusations that Beijing has devalued its currency to gain a trade advantage and as China struggles to stem capital outflows depleting its FX reserves. Source: in.reuters.com/article/forex-poll-asia-idINKBN16912A
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MAR 04 2017: A separate Reuters poll confirmed trader sentiment toward most emerging Asian currencies worsened, with bets on the Chinese yuan turning slightly bearish, although positioning was still close to being neutral.Note
CHINA: Growth Target cut to 6,5%money.cnn.com/2017/03/04/news/economy/china-gdp-growth-target/index.html
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CHINA: Growth Target cut to 6,5%theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/22/greek-debt-eu-imf-angela-merkel-christine-lagarde-austerity
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CHINA: Growth Target cut to 6,5%cnbc.com/2017/03/04/china-sets-2017-economic-growth-target.html
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MAR 16 2017: PBOC raises short-term rates third times in three month.Note
Comment: APR 04 2017 - Qoute: Keep Your Eye On U.S.-China SummitSource: m.investing.com/analysis/keep-your-eye-on-u.s.-china-summit-200181292
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Bitcoin marches towards all-time high as SEC gives potential second shot to Winklevoss ETFcnbc.com/2017/04/26/bitcoin-price-sec-winklevoss-etf-review.html
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Bitcoin jumps to a new all-time high above $1,300, capping 20% April surgecnbc.com/2017/04/27/bitcoin-jumps-to-a-new-all-time-high-above-1300-capping-20-april-surge.html
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Tensions between Trump and North Korea could trigger more capital outflows from China. Maybe helpful to watch USDCNH a bit more closely. U.S. says 'major conflict' with North Korea possible, China warns of danger of escalation
investing.com/news/world-news/south-korea,-u.s.-warn-of-punishment-for-north-korea
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China finance minister skips summit with Japan, Korea to attend emergency meetinginvesting.com/news/economy-news/japan,-china,-south-korea-pledge-to-resist-protectionism-480405
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As China's battle with leverage begins to bite, risk bites backinvesting.com/news/economy-news/as-china's-battle-with-leverage-begins-to-bite,-risk-bites-back-481427
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Here’s how China’s credit crackdown could derail the U.S. stock marketChina’s 5-year bond yield highest since January 2015
marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-chinas-credit-crackdown-could-derail-the-us-stock-market-2017-05-09?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
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China has now become the biggest fear for marketscnbc.com/2017/05/08/china-has-now-become-the-biggest-fear-for-markets.html
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Moody's downgrades China for first time since 1989 as it warns financial strength will erode as debt mountsMoody's downgrades China for first time since 1989
Moody's says reforms won't prevent rise in economy-wide debt
European shares drift lower at opening bell
China stocks end steady after sharp falls
telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/24/moodys-downgrades-china-first-time-since-1989-warns-financial/
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Chinese Stocks Erase Losses Triggered by Moody's Cut and MSCIbloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-24/chinese-stocks-drop-to-seven-month-low-after-moody-s-downgrade
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China cracks down on top brokerages in latest clean-up effortinvesting.com/news/stock-market-news/china-cracks-down-on-top-brokerages-in-latest-clean-up-effort-488059
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Ballooning Chinese dollar borrowing a dilemma for index trackersinvesting.com/news/economy-news/ballooning-chinese-dollar-borrowing-a-dilemma-for-index-trackers-488647
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Irritation with Moody's reflects China's sensitivity as it seeks foreign investorsinvesting.com/news/economy-news/irritation-with-moody's-reflects-china's-sensitivity-as-it-seeks-foreign-investors-488884
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Comment: BTC short closed at 2.460 or net gain of 200 Points. Momentum to the upside is still there. BTC needs to much attention to trade it.Note
BTC short re-entry at 2.690 after momentum to the upside faded at 2.600. BTC dropped to 1.880 within 24 hours. Same like in January. China stopped devaluation of USDCNH and BTC was cut by 40% within a few days.Note
China to launch new gauge to improve interbank interest rate systeminvesting.com/news/economy-news/china-to-launch-new-gauge-to-improve-interbank-interest-rate-system-489247
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China May data to show stable growth as exports stay solidinvesting.com/news/economic-indicators/china-may-data-to-show-stable-growth-as-exports-stay-solid-491768
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China’s debt surpasses 300 percent of GDP, IIF says, raising doubts over Yellen’s crisis remarkscnbc.com/2017/06/28/chinas-debt-surpasses-300-percent-of-gdp-iif-says-raising-doubts-over-yellens-crisis-remarks.html
Trade active
November 22nd 2017:Trade active: Zeitpunkt unklar:
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China is pumping a lot of cash into its economy to calm investors
China injected nearly $130 billion into its market in the last two weeks to quell a bond rout
The People's Bank of China is seeking to balance market sentiment with its need to crackdown on debt
Rapidly expanding liquidity could make it more challenging for Beijing to counteract capital flight — its relatively static foreign exchange reserves are growing less potent when compared to the amount of cash that could be leaving the country cnbc.com/2017/11/22/china-cash-injections-to-quell-bond-rout-liquidity-debt-fx-reserves.html
Trade active
After Sudden Rout, China Stock Traders Question Beijing Put investing.com/news/stock-market-news/after-sudden-rout-china-stock-traders-question-beijing-put-1-906862
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Asian indexes trade mixed as China markets look to bounce back Asian shares were mostly lower on Friday
Chinese shares staged a recovery after mainland indexes tumbled almost 3 percent in the last session
Mitsubishi Materials lost more than 9 percent after the company said some of its units had falsified product data
The overnight trading session was quiet, with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday
cnbc.com/2017/11/23/asia-markets-china-stocks--dollar-euro-in-focus.html
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