JICPT| CNH may weaken against USD with key support of 6.36!
Updated
Hello everyone. It's been one months since I published an idea titled 'USDCNH testing policy bottom of Chinese Government'. Definitely, 6.35 is policy bottom which explained clear in the related idea below.
However, it kept going down until it touched 6.30. It was very interesting to observe the huge volume. I suspected government intervened as whole figure really mattered. 6.29ish is totally different from 6.30. Coincidentally, that was the day Putin announced military operation in Ukraine.
In the following days, I also noticed two abnormal volume with one thin candle and one thick candle respectively. Then, Chinese mainland market as well as Hong Kong market tumbled with CNH quickly weakened against USD. I don't think government stepped in this time. Short sellers were likely to jump in.
Did the downtrend channel got firmly violated? Not at all. The key support is 6.36. If it holds well, the pair may go sideways before forming another leg to conquer the trouble channel. If it failed, the pair is likely to seek support around 6.3250.
I think the weak CNH benefit China's economy. Of course, the government will also take into the account of the internalization of the currency. The strong CNH helps.
Everything has two sides. Let's see where it's going. My personal view is that the pair is likely to go back to 6.50 within the next two quarters.
What do you think?
However, it kept going down until it touched 6.30. It was very interesting to observe the huge volume. I suspected government intervened as whole figure really mattered. 6.29ish is totally different from 6.30. Coincidentally, that was the day Putin announced military operation in Ukraine.
In the following days, I also noticed two abnormal volume with one thin candle and one thick candle respectively. Then, Chinese mainland market as well as Hong Kong market tumbled with CNH quickly weakened against USD. I don't think government stepped in this time. Short sellers were likely to jump in.
Did the downtrend channel got firmly violated? Not at all. The key support is 6.36. If it holds well, the pair may go sideways before forming another leg to conquer the trouble channel. If it failed, the pair is likely to seek support around 6.3250.
I think the weak CNH benefit China's economy. Of course, the government will also take into the account of the internalization of the currency. The strong CNH helps.
Everything has two sides. Let's see where it's going. My personal view is that the pair is likely to go back to 6.50 within the next two quarters.
What do you think?
Note
Note
Yep. I'm right. The downtrend has officially terminated. 
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