Short

"The Big Short" - from the Movie 2016 Oscar Union reward

Updated

Short Renminbi for last leg ( the last meal) Stupid is paying the price again and again.
Among those central banks, PBOC is the worst one. They're too old to realize the turning of the culture influence and the huge inflation will be there in the future. This is called NO "wen hua".
I have never shorted Renminbi before but NOT this time.
This is a clearly signal, BTW.

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Obviously, long USDCNY, short CNYUSD.
Forex pair are divided by the later currency, for example: USDCNY = USD/CNY, if you can't do multiple just long USDCNY is ok.

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A shares markets have long term yearly positive correlations with the Renminbi and the inflations. The A shares rising in 2015 is a collapsing in negative interests condition but not the real rising.
PBOC made many mistakes:
1, They should have raised the interests rates 3 times if they did it right, the first one during the collapsing in 2015 and raised twice after FED. So the Renminbi's interests should be much higher now and the A shares should be more healthy.
2, They think Renminbi's weakness will push the A shares up, wrong correlation.
3, They think Renminbi's devaluation will push the inflations higher, wrong, there's NO markets for them to do it.
4, They think the "on road, one belt" plan needs the Renminbi's weakness, wrong, the global culture revolution and the populist rising will make the plan failed. When you do something like "one road one belt" plan you should have Chinese culture influenced in that country and the populist is going to be against it.
5, The right way to play the game of Civilization V is the culture first but not your money, right? ( the culture, the economy, the politics, the force, in a right sequence).
PBOC is very disappointed stupidized and too old...

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The funny thing is, when Yellen said we would like to wait and see... that means FRB is watching out PBOC's hike. Then the PBOC copied Yellen's speech "we wait and see." Lol ... To see what? Everyone is watching your acting like a fool ......

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I'm posting some real deal before this moving happens.

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The first one, EURUSD
Be careful guys, EURUSD and DXY has all time mathematic negative correlation and the DAX, SPX500 could drop hard too. ( in fact, they're the same market)

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The second one, of your favorites XAUUSD
The Renminbi's devaluation is wrong because it is the purchase power itself, you guys could see after severals weeks the durable goods inflation failed, and forced FRB to hike and devaluate US dollar as well for pushing inflation back.

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The third one, gold miners stocks...
I can't post charts here because now it looks like a signal already. If you could buy A shares I suggest miner stocks, where weekly closed by, 002716 20.92 Yuan/share in Shenzhen City index and 600547 35.54 Yuan/share in Shanghai Composite index. There's NO guarantee here but I will follow them to show you results in several weeks. Trading correlations has huge risks and some of them could be changing at any time, be careful guys.

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yahoo.com/news/china-trims-gdp-target-citing-grave-challenges-024212611.html
Here comes the joke. Because they did it all wrong so if they do it reversely then it will be ok. Same thing happened during Obama's administration in USA, now Trump is reversing it.

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For respect new house rule, I hope they're ready for the shock.
yahoo.com/news/officials-warn-global-religious-extremism-threat-china-062604501.html

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I suggest scalpers being flat in this week. Some times staying away from the market for a while is a better way to protect your account...
At the very key time window, a week ago, BOJ officer hinted us that this hike in March could be an huge shock to the Asia and Pacific EEM markets.
Today the US Secretary Rex Tillerson is visiting Japan and will meet with the Japan foreign minister and the Prim minister Anbei in case of something from "wait and see" happens. It's a calm down to the Japan also.
I don't know what PBOC and China foreign minister are doing. The only possibility I could predict is that they must be stupid. Lol...

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Source: fxstreet.cn/news/ ( This's not an advertising)
HongKong dollar raised interests by 0.25% ( the second rising from 2015)
PBOC raised 14 days SLF by 0.1% from 0.25% to 0.26%, raised 7 days SLF by 0.1 from 2.45% to 2.35%, raised 28 days SLF by 0.1% by from 2.75% to 2.65%, the key interests 6 months and 1 year MLF raised by 0.1% or saying long term inter banks interests are raised.
A good move.
Australia National Bank raised house loan credit interests fro supressing the house price too. ( Goldman Sachs predict RBA raises OZ interests by 0.25% at the 4th. season 2017.)

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I've noticed that CBRF ( Bank of Russia) cut rates 0.25% for the inflation target 4% (4.7% now). CBRF predict oil price will drop to 40 or lower soon. It's a better way to stable Rub before it drops and the interesting thing is USDRUB drops after the cut.
It was In 2014 CBRF raised Rub interests for protecting the Russia market and Rub, it's the right thing to do when the stocks market dropped and currency was weak.
I believe that CBRF is wiser than the PBOC. PBOC is doing it very wrong...... PBOC should have raised interests 3 time in the crisis. Now if the inflation is failure Renminbi's rates is too low to cut for helping the economic. We're going to double overheat phase from USA and China soon, the core inflation shall rise with the hike from US Dollar and Renminbi.

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Key event is ahead 4th. April 2017 President Xi first meeting President Trump in USA. Many futures could be decided in the meeting. Renminbi, China foreign reserves, US- China trades, inflation, Japanese Yen as well, A shares too. The USDCNY should be pegging on a rate then the forex market will move huge. North Korea and Taiwan will be discussed in this meeting. It's an very important meeting.

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April fool!
I was pessimism 3 years ago when you guys were at high.
Now you're at bottom and I'm optimism. A reminder to Chinese traders, you're always late.

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Key meeting
finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-start-week-steady-strong-005409334.html

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Source: White House Website
whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/04/07/statement-press-secretary-united-states-china-visit
whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/04/07/briefing-secretary-tillerson-secretary-mnuchin-and-secretary-ross
"SECRETARY ROSS: And the most interesting thing to me was they expressed an interest in reducing their net trade balance because of the impact it’s having on money supply and inflation. That's the first time I’ve heard them say that in a bilateral context."

I want to make this simple and clear. USDCNY and USDCHN will be pegging at some where for several months and the Renminibi will be getting stronger. China foreign reserves shall flat and will decrease.
North Korea nuclear will be deleted with or without China's permission. Good for China's safety long run.

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Thank you BOE and U.K! For saving Renminbi!
Thank you BOJ and Japan! For saving A shares!
Thank you FRB and President Trump and America people! For supporting always!
This publish ends here! 40 months cycle completed!

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Guys, expecting an first Renminbi's hike in the Aug. 2017, the only hike for this year.

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Moving down to 55 months SMA.

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The weighted Renminbi looks like bottomed now, I'm talking about the weighted Yuan not the USDCNY or USDCHN, FYI. There's a very small possibility of devaluation.

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The CFETS index (92.74 a second wave) , BIS basket (93.56 a second wave), SDR basket (93.54 harmonic double bottom) are all rising.
This's a signal for all Chinese traders, please take your last chance, for investment consideration...

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The EURCNY, DXY, core inflations... Chinese traders should see a pull back and it will be your choice for investing Euro dollar, China stock markets (the A shares), Renminbi measured core inflations. There'll be a sweet time of invest everything but not the bonds and not the oil/food.

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This is a signal for Chinese traders. Be careful, the OCI currencies or saying crypto currencies have been announced as an illegal money laundry behavoir by the PBOC in China from administration tightenning measures. Because most of the BTCUSD is traded by Chinese OCI platform from Renminbi capital squeezing into US dollar. We suggest selling all of your fancy crypto currencies in case your money is trapped in a wasted technology which is only as a collection without any "value".

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Source: ( in Chinese)
sohu.com/a/169184063_260616

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We'll very quickly pull back to 6.80-6.81 ( 0.786 of the first impulse) for pushing China inflation then Chinese investors shold sell US dollar and buy Renminbi back before it's too late.

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We're doing a pull back to 6.83 plat form soon, this may be pegging with US dollar for 20 months, with sharing a same inflation with USA.

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A Renminbi's small rates cut on Nov. 2017 is predicted today, there might be a second cut on Dec. 2017, then a flat and a pegging with US dollar. Bullish signal for China stocks market in 20 months but chose your sectors wisely ( chuangye sector may be the best one).
This's the newest prediction which will meet the 6.83 plat form and an USDCNY pegging for 20 months for sharing the same inflation with the USA (will be lower after 20 months pegging).
President Trump prefers regularity and force, this is what he wants and also fulfills the China new dictator's growing appetites... ugly than Trump.

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Wait for the President Trump's first trip in Asia, Japan, Korea, China... the trading deal will decide the USDCNY. If China hikes the US hikes shall be paused soon, this shall be fallen. The best condition is pegging, but we will see what happens.

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Looks like USDCNY is pegging now but the China stock markets is forming an harmonic top then crashing by an hike, a new squeezing is coming.

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A Renminbi's deposit hike or second devaluation (6.8 pegging has been predicted before) or China inflation has been predicted today, looks like the news has been leak already. People are commencing on purchasing in the city, like Brexit.

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With the DXY stable USDCNY may rise back to 6.80 then 6.96 to form an harmonic pattern top in a complex wave.

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Source: ( We don't trade news but Trump is a devaluation side, this may be against him. The failure of the inflation shall make the Yuan weak)
finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-drops-abc-report-162508089.html
Rising back to form an harmonic top soon... with US dollar rising.

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We may have reached the important low point at 6.50 here.

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Now we're going to 6.80-6.90. Funny thing is PBOC still doing it wrongly, culturally.

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A Gartley pattern will stop it? May be, or may be not.

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We've predicted China first hike window, on 18th. Feb. 2018, 5th. Mar. 2018, 21st. Mar. 2018. The stock markets are "pre-hike" correcting like 2015 after the first hike in USA.
If Chinese Renminbi is hiking US Dollar should pause, so USDCNY is still down after some weak bounce.

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Source link: TV (This looks like a devaluation but not an hike)
finance.qq.com/a/20180213/017152.htm

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Traders! RISK OFF mode!
Please leave stock market or hedge your shares now!
Please look back 2015 crashing. DXY may go down to 86.50 then rises to receive capital squeezing!
1; VIX above 20 again.
2; EA crossed 1.5800 EU zone inflation may go to -2%.
3; Renminbi's devaluation like the Aug. 2015.
4; China incident on March.
Scalpers in forex market should hold short term. It's enough to avoid this kind of risk.

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Chinese Renminbi should hike in deposit interests and devaluation to the core inflation. We're waiting for Mr. Yi Gang for more clues.

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We're approaching USDCNY 11th. Aug. 2015 same level here.
What if you've invested China SZSE index

What if you've invested XAUCNY

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Now the pegging, during a trade tariffs negotiation.

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The Renminbi’s rising may have been over now be careful here. After checked the CFETS BIS and SDR.

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The Renminbi BIS and the SDR have repealed the US hike, the CFETS has some lagging, a rising of Chinese Yuan since 2017 May will be over soon. It will devaluate again but not for the US dollar ( believe it or not, they will sink together. )

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Now it’s a good time window for Renminbi basic deposite hike in 2 months, July or August. The April action from PBOC has been proven a failure, they’re always wrong like predicted before. Those politicians don’t understand the forex market, they have no idea what and where is the market at all. (Too old to understand it)
We should be prepared for the worst scenario in China, if the PBOC make a second mistake. No one will make the same mistake by twice, believe it or not, they can make it worse.

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moving nicely, should have more weakness

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Prediction now is supporting a raise in the Yuan's basic deposit interests ( 1.5% annually) in August to catch up with the fed's personal deposit rate ( 6.7% annually) : possibilities is more than 50 percent by now) See? China has lost already, inflation too high, Chinese people are poor by 5.2% now.
USDCNY should go higher until FRB supply it.

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The RMB SDR is at new low 92.70 after last week close where has been lower than previous double bottom ( formed in 2017 May and August) where was at 93.54.
The RMB BIS and CFETS index has not dropped into new lows yet but we will watch it closely in this monthly close.
Technically speaking in SDR measuring, RMB index should go lower after the new low has been created.

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10 years cycle...

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Chinese Yuan SDR basket is showing a top near the neck line, the USDCNY pegging should work now. Like 2008 QE, the global core inflation will be synchronized. This's saying the major central banks are working together to push the core inflation in every country. The pegging should work until PBOC hikes due to the China stock market is too high. It's very low now, right?

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For some reasons, looks like the PBOC is defending the 7.0 in USDCNY, so if the US dollar is still going up during the Brexit risk off, they may have to raise the Renminbi’s personal deposit interests to defense it.

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We persist in this USDCNY 7.0 is an unbreakable. The forex market major US dollar pairs are pulled back to the same level like 2015 also China stock market is in a comfortable zone for release the risks. At this time PBOC will act to raise Renminbi’s personal deposit interests (in fact, it’s happened already, an hidden one)the hike in Chinese Renminbi should be announced soon. We’ve seen western market crash right? Capital is flowing into China here.

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On chart, hope you would believe that, or not.

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please focus on the 6.20 take back, 10% precious.

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The Renminbi's devaluation cycle is ending now, 6.20 should be taken back in the future. Please focus on the capital flowing back to EEM market from here, it will be squeezed many months later.

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On chart
We've said, "Mar 4, 2019, Comment: please focus on the 6.20 take back, 10% precious."

Victor.Y.F

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