Impact of Trump's tariffs on CNY and Asia FX
So far, since the beginning of recent Trump trade on mid-September, CNY and other Asian currencies only depreciated mildly, with CNY and the Asia Dollar index depreciating 1.88% and 1.3% respectively against the Dollar.
We believe that such levels of depreciation against the Dollar reflect that market has not yet priced in a potential large size of US tariffs on China and else, especially considering that such depreciations happened amid a 4.1% strengthening of the US Dollar and the rising US bond yields.
Impact on CNY: a 60% tariff would REQUIRE a 10%-12% depreciation of CNY against the Dollar to offset the negative impact of tariffs, keeping everything else unchanged.
A potential less strong Dollar in medium term compared with 2018-2019 trade war time, makes the required 10%-12% CNY depreciation much more significant than it appears. During the US-China trade war period (March 2018-September 2019), CNY depreciated about 12% against the US Dollar, however that 12% CNY depreciation happened amid a 10% US Dollar’s appreciation, CNY’s depreciation wasn’t entirely driven by the tariffs.
It may not be realistic for PBOC to let CNY to free fall, and they may intervene as well. Economic performance is never static. Potential tariff retaliation could worsen the situation and there is risk of other countries raising tariffs on China products too. China’s economy is at weak condition, with on-going property sector stress, weak domestic demand, local-government debts and etc. Abrupt large CNY depreciation could de-stabilize the financial system.
Fiscal support can offset the negative impact brought by the high tariffs, which in turn reduces the need for much CNY depreciation. Some estimates that it takes a fiscal stimulus of RMB 2.5 to 3 trillion to offset the 60% US tariff’s drag on China GDP, everything else being equal. Should this happen, CNY may not depreciate much.
If US uses the tariff as a negotiation tool, then CNY’s depreciation is more likely to happen during an extended period of time when negotiation is happening, like what we saw in Trump’s first trade war in 2018-2019.
Near term, the anticipation for a potential tariff could pressure the CNY weaker, to 7.3 probably by the end of this year, before more material depreciation in 2025, if there lacks sufficient fiscal support to offset the tariff’s drag on overall economy.
So far, since the beginning of recent Trump trade on mid-September, CNY and other Asian currencies only depreciated mildly, with CNY and the Asia Dollar index depreciating 1.88% and 1.3% respectively against the Dollar.
We believe that such levels of depreciation against the Dollar reflect that market has not yet priced in a potential large size of US tariffs on China and else, especially considering that such depreciations happened amid a 4.1% strengthening of the US Dollar and the rising US bond yields.
Impact on CNY: a 60% tariff would REQUIRE a 10%-12% depreciation of CNY against the Dollar to offset the negative impact of tariffs, keeping everything else unchanged.
A potential less strong Dollar in medium term compared with 2018-2019 trade war time, makes the required 10%-12% CNY depreciation much more significant than it appears. During the US-China trade war period (March 2018-September 2019), CNY depreciated about 12% against the US Dollar, however that 12% CNY depreciation happened amid a 10% US Dollar’s appreciation, CNY’s depreciation wasn’t entirely driven by the tariffs.
It may not be realistic for PBOC to let CNY to free fall, and they may intervene as well. Economic performance is never static. Potential tariff retaliation could worsen the situation and there is risk of other countries raising tariffs on China products too. China’s economy is at weak condition, with on-going property sector stress, weak domestic demand, local-government debts and etc. Abrupt large CNY depreciation could de-stabilize the financial system.
Fiscal support can offset the negative impact brought by the high tariffs, which in turn reduces the need for much CNY depreciation. Some estimates that it takes a fiscal stimulus of RMB 2.5 to 3 trillion to offset the 60% US tariff’s drag on China GDP, everything else being equal. Should this happen, CNY may not depreciate much.
If US uses the tariff as a negotiation tool, then CNY’s depreciation is more likely to happen during an extended period of time when negotiation is happening, like what we saw in Trump’s first trade war in 2018-2019.
Near term, the anticipation for a potential tariff could pressure the CNY weaker, to 7.3 probably by the end of this year, before more material depreciation in 2025, if there lacks sufficient fiscal support to offset the tariff’s drag on overall economy.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Enjoy the journey, the profits will come eventually!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.