Short
Large Swing In Play For USDINR in 2020
Updated
Here we are tracking the 2020 macro map for USDINR, a high yielding EM currency. The expansion in volatility here will come from CB coordination, and being short USDINR which generally would also support a view for better risk appetite means it acts a great portfolio hedge for those looking for high carry.
On the INR side, macro figures are starting to indicate further upside although still stuck in low gears. The tax cuts from the fiscal side doing some of the heavy lifting thanks to Modi (India's version of Trump). Inflation is subdue with a lot more slack left in the labour market and a cheap commodity board.
Should investors see the deficit handled appropriately then all boxes are checked for capital flows into India. Demand for INR looks set to improve and combined with the USD devaluation theme it makes a great few months for INR to see some appreciation.
Risks to my thesis come from US-China protectionism, private capex not picking up (low odds after the attractive tax cuts) and to a lesser extent if RBI push the INR down by accumulating.
On the INR side, macro figures are starting to indicate further upside although still stuck in low gears. The tax cuts from the fiscal side doing some of the heavy lifting thanks to Modi (India's version of Trump). Inflation is subdue with a lot more slack left in the labour market and a cheap commodity board.
Should investors see the deficit handled appropriately then all boxes are checked for capital flows into India. Demand for INR looks set to improve and combined with the USD devaluation theme it makes a great few months for INR to see some appreciation.
Risks to my thesis come from US-China protectionism, private capex not picking up (low odds after the attractive tax cuts) and to a lesser extent if RBI push the INR down by accumulating.
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70.5x initial targets hit !!
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