Indian Rupee - USDINR - Is it all over?
Updated
I reviewed the this chart first in Sept 2020. At that time, I was looking at top to form in USD/INR. Since then, the price made wild moves but still on the looks of it, it's not clear if the top is in place. However, the most important trigger that made me think and do a detailed analysis on this is the break of this trend line. You will notice the trend line from 1980 which acted as a support in 2011, 2018 and in 2020 is now broken.
After analysing the move 2008 until the all time highs, it seems that the top is place.
Another way to confirm is to look at the type of pattern that is forming when the prices fell from all time highs. On the looks of it, it seems the fall is in-line with the correct pattern and doesn't violates any rule or guidelines in place.
So if the analysis is correct, then what can be expected?
price should fall at least to Rs. 69.5 to Rs 71.xx levels to begin with. This fall should be sharp and fast.
Post that, there could be more bearish potential but it could be too early to call for it.
Finally if the prices falls below Rs. 68.32 on a closing basis, then it will be confirmed that the long term top is in place and price could put Rs.62.5
I will continue to track it and see how it performs over the next few weeks.
USDINR
After analysing the move 2008 until the all time highs, it seems that the top is place.
Another way to confirm is to look at the type of pattern that is forming when the prices fell from all time highs. On the looks of it, it seems the fall is in-line with the correct pattern and doesn't violates any rule or guidelines in place.
So if the analysis is correct, then what can be expected?
price should fall at least to Rs. 69.5 to Rs 71.xx levels to begin with. This fall should be sharp and fast.
Post that, there could be more bearish potential but it could be too early to call for it.
Finally if the prices falls below Rs. 68.32 on a closing basis, then it will be confirmed that the long term top is in place and price could put Rs.62.5
I will continue to track it and see how it performs over the next few weeks.
USDINRNote
Keeping an eye on alternative is always recommended. So here is the view:
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