USDJPY Update & Patterns Lesson: How NOT To Use Patterns! +326
Current Status: SHORT Current Profits: +326 pips
In the main chart above, you can see that I am still expecting prices to drop even more.....those who trust and follow me are over +320 pips in profit on this trade so far.
I was sent a question to me by one of my followers asking me to comment and explain a chart posted by another OP here. I hesitated to post any reply due to the fact that I don't like to comment on another OP's charts. But after looking at it several times, I decided I will make a post explaining why the patterns didn't work. Take a look at this chart below showing both a "completed butterfly" pattern and a POTENTIAL Cypher pattern:
.
You can see that he drew a "completed butterfly" pattern on here and also a POTENTIAL Cypher. First, if anyone posts this and says it means it is time to BUY, they don't have a good grasp and knowledge of how harmonic patterns work and even how to draw them! If you know the fib ratios of a butterfly pattern, then you will know that isn't a COMPLETED butterfly but rather still a POTENTIAL one! And if you know harmonic patterns, then you know that the butterfly is an extension pattern. Extension patterns have their D point below (or above in case of a bearish butterfly) the X point. And that they are defining a strong trend that MAY BE ending. You would also know that extension patterns have a PRZ that is below the D point and VERY OFTEN, prices will test that PRZ and many times, test the ENTIRE PRZ! Why? Because there is a down trend in place and you are looking to trade counter-trend! So you should not be surprised to see prices drop below and even WAY below the completion point (D point) of any extension pattern of which a butterfly is one. So to say you should BUY off the completion of the butterfly is incorrect or at least bad advice!
Second, even though that Cypher pattern is drawn correctly, there isn't any CYPHER pattern there yet! Only a POSSIBLE Cypher pattern. Not eve any POTENTIAL Cypher since the C point of that cypher is not confirmed yet. Here is a piece of advice you should take to heart about Cypher patterns.....NEVER trade the CD leg of any Cypher pattern! ALWAYS wait for the Cypher to complete before you take any trade on it!
WHY? Because when you are looking at a Cypher pattern, the CD leg of that Cypher is actually going AGAINST the trend! And who wants to go against the trend without seeing price action PROVE that the trend has ended? But the problem with waiting on price action to prove the trend is over, prices may have moved more than half way up (or down) the CD leg of that Cypher already making the risk:reward of any trade useless!
So there is my little comment and lesson on the chart my follower sent to me. Hope it helps!
In the main chart above, you can see that I am still expecting prices to drop even more.....those who trust and follow me are over +320 pips in profit on this trade so far.
I was sent a question to me by one of my followers asking me to comment and explain a chart posted by another OP here. I hesitated to post any reply due to the fact that I don't like to comment on another OP's charts. But after looking at it several times, I decided I will make a post explaining why the patterns didn't work. Take a look at this chart below showing both a "completed butterfly" pattern and a POTENTIAL Cypher pattern:
You can see that he drew a "completed butterfly" pattern on here and also a POTENTIAL Cypher. First, if anyone posts this and says it means it is time to BUY, they don't have a good grasp and knowledge of how harmonic patterns work and even how to draw them! If you know the fib ratios of a butterfly pattern, then you will know that isn't a COMPLETED butterfly but rather still a POTENTIAL one! And if you know harmonic patterns, then you know that the butterfly is an extension pattern. Extension patterns have their D point below (or above in case of a bearish butterfly) the X point. And that they are defining a strong trend that MAY BE ending. You would also know that extension patterns have a PRZ that is below the D point and VERY OFTEN, prices will test that PRZ and many times, test the ENTIRE PRZ! Why? Because there is a down trend in place and you are looking to trade counter-trend! So you should not be surprised to see prices drop below and even WAY below the completion point (D point) of any extension pattern of which a butterfly is one. So to say you should BUY off the completion of the butterfly is incorrect or at least bad advice!
Second, even though that Cypher pattern is drawn correctly, there isn't any CYPHER pattern there yet! Only a POSSIBLE Cypher pattern. Not eve any POTENTIAL Cypher since the C point of that cypher is not confirmed yet. Here is a piece of advice you should take to heart about Cypher patterns.....NEVER trade the CD leg of any Cypher pattern! ALWAYS wait for the Cypher to complete before you take any trade on it!
WHY? Because when you are looking at a Cypher pattern, the CD leg of that Cypher is actually going AGAINST the trend! And who wants to go against the trend without seeing price action PROVE that the trend has ended? But the problem with waiting on price action to prove the trend is over, prices may have moved more than half way up (or down) the CD leg of that Cypher already making the risk:reward of any trade useless!
So there is my little comment and lesson on the chart my follower sent to me. Hope it helps!
SPECIAL Report on the S&P 500. Read it here. It's FREE: bit.ly/2KGJ409spx818
Mailing list: bit.ly/2iNieEY
Facebook Group: facebook.com/efxselect
Twitter: @andrewefxselect
Website: efxselect.com
Mailing list: bit.ly/2iNieEY
Facebook Group: facebook.com/efxselect
Twitter: @andrewefxselect
Website: efxselect.com
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.